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Gold Trend 25/11 – Expect 2nd round of profit taking above 2700
Technical rebound + Russia/Ukraine situation rapidly deteriorated, causing gold prices to rebound strongly over $150 last week.
Following the rebound from the week before, the gold price opened at 2562 and quickly reached our target of 2620 early last week. Russia and Ukraine exchanged missiles and Putin eased the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, boosting the gold price further. By the end of the week, the gold price reached the weekly high of 2715 as the market priced in the risk premium right before the weekend.
The gold price retreated sharply back from the weekend, falling to as low as 2658 in the Asian secession on Monday. We can expect the investment market to be relatively quiet this week as Thanksgiving weekend is approaching. Geopolitical situations will continue to dominate the gold trend this week. Since the gold price has surged over 20% from the beginning of the year, as long as the situation in Ukraine does not intensify, the price above 2,700 should be a good opportunity for institutional funds to seize profits from the beginning of the year before the year’s end.
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1-hr chart (above) > Gold price has entered a horizontal range pattern after it crossed the downward trend resistance line (1) last week. Take advantage of the 2650-2710(2) for now, and pay close attention to the development of the situation in Russia/Ukraine, the market may price in the risk premium once again before the Thanksgiving long weekend!
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Daily chart (above) > The rapid correction in the Asian session on Monday is causing a reversal signal to appear on the daily chart(3). Wait for the price to close below 2670 on Monday, once the reversal signal is completed, the price should return to 2600 or lower in the next two weeks.
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GBPUSD 1d
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HGc1 1d
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USDJPY 1h
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Gold Trend 18/11 – S-T rebound begins
The market last week unfolded in line with our predictions, as the consolidation period continued. The price broke below the 2650(1) resistance level early in the week, initiating a downward movement toward our target at 2600. Subsequently, the price dropped to the weekly low of 2536 following the inflation data on Wednesday. A slight rebound occurred afterward, with the week closing near 2562 on Friday, marking a $102 decline.
Following the US election, the US dollar has remained strong, leading to a drop of over $250 in gold prices over the past two weeks. Nevertheless, the selling pressure has eased after the rebound from 2538. It’s worth noting that Fed Chairman Powell explicitly mentioned last Thursday that there is no rush to cut rates at the current market conditions, limiting the upward potential for gold for the time being. With no significant market data on the calendar for this week, gold prices are expected to stay sideways.
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1-hr chart(above) > The downward momentum has been decelerating since last Thursday. If the price manages to break out from the current descending trendline (3), we can establish the initial upside target at 2620 (4). Given the absence of significant economic data scheduled for this week, we can regard the range of 2555-2620 (4) as the provisional operating zone.
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Daily chart(above) >Gold achieved a 50% retracement last week (5) and rebounded from the 100-day MA (6). We can anticipate resistance in the short term around 2600-2605(7). In case of a breach above 2600, the subsequent target is expected near the 10-day moving average of around 2630.
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Gold Trend 11/11 – M-T consolidation period official begins
Gold prices fell back from their highs last week, in line with our expectations. The U.S. election suppressed the market in the early period, and gold prices were under pressure in the 2750-58(1) resistance zone. Once the election results became clear, the decline began to accelerate. A few US media announced Trump’s victory prior to the official result, causing the first drop to the low of 2701. A few hours later, when the election results were officially announced, the price of gold went straight through 2,700 and fell all the way to the week’s low of 2,643. Subsequently, at the US Fed meeting, the committee cut the rates by 1/4% in line with market expectations. Gold prices took advantage of the momentum to rebound to 2710, closing the market at 2684 before the weekend.
After last week’s sharp drop, gold’s upward momentum has officially weakened. The price of gold has soared by nearly $800 since the beginning of the year, so we should start to beware of relatively large-scale institutional liquidation activities as the year-end approaches. The focus this week is Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data. If the CPI data does not slow down like the PCE inflation number released 2 weeks back, gold prices will likely retest the low again this week.
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1-hour chart (above) > Since gold price escaped the sideway range (4) last week, the decline has speeded up, and the downward resistance has accelerated from (2) to (2.1). The S-T trend remains bearish, with the 1st target set at last week’s low of 2646 -50(3). If gold prices fall beyond 2646, the next downside target will be near 2600. On the other hand, we must still pay attention to the fact that if the gold price surges above the falling resistance line (2.1) in the next 48 hours, the gold price may stay within 2650-2710(4) for a while longer until the next major move.
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Daily chart (above) > Gold prices broke out from the M-T uptrend channel (5) originating from August, and the upward trend in the past three months has officially ended now. The price is currently supported by the 50-day MA (7). Before the price adjusts further down, the pattern on the daily chart will remain sideway between 2645-2710 (8).
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GBPUSD 1d
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XAUUSD 1h
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XAUUSD 1d
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