Tensions in the Middle East are once again escalating after former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly stated he would decide within two weeks whether to take military action against Iran. The remark stirred immediate reactions in global markets, already on edge amid heightened geopolitical risks in the region.

The White House later clarified that no final decision has been made. Lines of communication between Washington and Tehran remain open. Trump emphasized that he does not favor war, but made it clear that allowing Iran to obtain nuclear weapons is not an option. Speaking with a sense of urgency, he noted that when faced with a choice between preventing war and preventing a nuclear Iran, “you do what you have to do.” While he suggested a plan of action is taking shape, he also indicated that he would wait until the last minute to make a final call, acknowledging how quickly military conflicts can escalate.

Meanwhile, tensions flared further after Israeli forces launched a recent strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, Iran announced on June 13 that it would suspend nuclear negotiations with the U.S. However, sources have revealed that Iran has privately conveyed, through Arab intermediaries, its willingness to return to the negotiating table — under the condition that the U.S. does not interfere with Israeli military operations. While this does not mark a turning point, it offers a glimmer of hope for de-escalation.

In the face of such uncertainty, global financial markets have shifted into a holding pattern. U.S. equity markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday, while Hong Kong stocks hovered around the 23,000-point level as investors took a wait-and-see approach. Though price movements remain relatively contained, market sentiment has clearly grown more cautious.

Analysts widely agree that if the U.S. decides to pursue military action, the resulting conflict could trigger a broader regional war, sending oil prices soaring and increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, the Japanese yen, and government bonds. Equity markets globally, however, could face heightened selling pressure.

Looking ahead, the market’s focus will be squarely on Trump’s next move and the broader trajectory of U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations. In the short term, geopolitical risks are likely to dominate capital flows and market volatility. Whether Hong Kong stocks can hold above the key 23,000 level will largely depend on how the situation evolves and the stance international investors take.

With the countdown underway, any unexpected development out of the Middle East over the next two weeks could move the markets sharply. Investors should stay alert, monitor geopolitical headlines closely, and start adjusting their portfolios to account for rising risks and potential shifts in global sentiment.