The Argentine peso has tumbled to unprecedented lows, trading at nearly 1,492 pesos to the U.S. dollar, wiping out gains sparked by the recent $20 billion U.S. rescue package championed by Donald Trump. After a fleeting rally, the peso quickly gave back all the benefits, plunging over 40% against the dollar year-to-date, while ordinary Argentines rush to buy greenbacks to shield themselves from further currency collapse.

President Javier Milei’s much-lauded libertarian reforms—including aggressive deficit cuts and attempts to stabilize inflation—are now under fire. Economic growth has ground to a halt and voters are losing faith, as evidenced by significant defeats for Milei’s party in recent local elections. The October 26th congressional races may further weaken his position, amplifying concerns of a forced devaluation or even a return to sovereign default.

Trump’s support came with fanfare: a currency swap deal and credit line, plus talk of further U.S. Treasury intervention. But markets remain skeptical—aid seems conditional on Milei’s political survival, with American officials signaling that future support depends on this weekend’s election results.

History haunts Argentina; the nation has already defaulted on its sovereign debt nine times since 1816. Next year alone, Argentina will face $18 billion in debt repayments, but the central bank is bleeding reserves and can barely intervene to support the peso. As capital controls loom and political backing fades, fears grow that Argentina’s woes have only just begun. Investors worldwide are left wondering: Will the U.S. ever get its money back, or will this bailout go down as yet another lost wager in a country infamous for serial defaults?