With the 2026 midterm elections looming, Texas voters—especially independents—are expressing deep dissatisfaction with the Republican-controlled state’s direction. A new survey of 1,650 registered Texas voters finds that the mood is sour on both economic conditions and the policies prioritized by the GOP. While Republican primary voters remain loyal to Trump-endorsed Senate candidates, support among independents is clearly eroding.

The recent partisan redistricting push, designed to add five GOP seats, is widely unpopular with independents: only 13% support it, while 41% are opposed. In fact, 64% of Republicans and independents together want Congress to ban mid-decade redistricting, a sign that frustration with perceived power grabs cuts across party lines. This sentiment raises serious questions about the long-term electoral advantage the GOP is hoping for with the new map.

In a deeply divided Senate primary, Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn find themselves neck-and-neck, each leading with different voter segments, but without a clear consolidated base. The lack of consensus among Republican voters underscores the internal divisions that could make the coming election unpredictable.

Despite support for key conservative policies, like school vouchers (which have 54% support), Texas voters—especially independents and younger demographics—have become less confident in the state’s economic trajectory and the benefits of GOP leadership.

In short, 2026 is shaping up as a pivotal year for Texas politics, with independents signaling they are not on board with the state GOP’s current course. Their votes will likely be decisive in determining whether Texas doubles down on the status quo or takes a sharp new direction.