Over the past 24 to 48 hours, GBP/USD has continued its unfavorable trend, sliding closer to a one-month low. The pair closed yesterday at 1.34392, reflecting a 0.176% decline for the pound against the dollar. The market was influenced by the UK’s latest cooling inflation data and dovish remarks from Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann. Mann’s comments hinted at a slower pace of monetary tightening, weighing on the pound, while the UK’s inflation hitting its lowest level in nearly a year reinforced these expectations and dampened investor confidence.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes showed nearly unanimous support for the current rate hikes, providing support to the US dollar and further pressuring GBP/USD lower. Market attention has also shifted toward upcoming US GDP releases and other significant economic data, increasing volatility as investors remain cautious. The pound is under notable pressure amid uncertainties about future monetary policy direction.

For the average investor, this means the pound may continue to face headwinds against the dollar in the short term, especially with strong US economic data contrasting with eased UK inflation. If the dollar remains resilient, the pound could struggle to find support. Investors should closely monitor upcoming data and policy developments to adjust their forex strategies accordingly.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a clear bearish trend for GBPUSD, with a recent break below a key ascending trendline formed since late 2025. The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, indicating a death cross and reinforcing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands have tightened with prices hugging the lower band, suggesting short-term oversold conditions but overall negative bias. The MACD remains in negative territory, confirming sustained bearish momentum over the medium term.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart covering the past 3 to 5 days, GBPUSD exhibits bearish swings with frequent attempts at gains failing due to lack of momentum. Moving averages show a shift from bullish to bearish with short-term averages undercutting longer-term ones. Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating rising volatility. A recent MACD bearish crossover coupled with RSI near oversold levels suggests a potential short-lived bounce, though the dominant trend remains down.

Technical Trend:  GBPUSD is decisively bearish, showcasing a strong downward trend with continued cautious market sentiment. Short-term outlook remains a consolidation within a downward trajectory.

Technically, the confirmed break below the long-term ascending trendline combined with the death cross on the daily moving averages signals sustained bearish pressure. Short-term indicators on the hourly chart, including the MACD bearish crossover and RSI in oversold territory, may offer a temporary rebound opportunity. The developing descending flag pattern also points to continued selling pressure unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar highlights UK retail sales releases, forecasted at +2.8% year-over-year and +0.2% month-over-month, which directly affect GBPUSD. Additionally, key US data including December Core PCE Inflation and Q4 GDP figures will be released, with forecasts of 2.9% YoY core inflation and a 3% annualized GDP growth. Strong US data could bolster the USD and weigh on GBPUSD, whereas better-than-expected UK retail numbers may provide temporary relief for the pound.

Resistance & Support

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