West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures posted a volatile performance last week. According to market data, the front-month June contract (CLc1) settled at $64.31 per barrel on April 19. Amid shifting geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics, prices saw sharp swings over the following days, ultimately closing at $63.02 on April 25 — registering a weekly loss of about 1.85%. The overall trend reflected a notable “V-shaped” reversal.

On April 20, reports emerged suggesting the U.S. and Russia had made preliminary progress on Ukraine-related discussions, easing concerns over crude supply disruptions in the Black Sea. Oil prices subsequently retreated to $63.08 that day. However, political risk resurfaced quickly. On April 22, Kazakhstan, an OPEC+ member, called for an early increase in production quotas, stoking fears of rising supply. WTI slumped to $62.47, and fell further to $60.75 on April 23, after U.S. commercial crude inventories recorded an unexpected build, raising fresh concerns about weakening demand.

The narrative shifted again as geopolitical tensions escalated. On April 23, the U.S. imposed a new round of sanctions on executives at Iran’s state-owned tanker company, sending shipping costs through the Strait of Hormuz soaring and triggering safe-haven buying. Oil prices rebounded to $61.05. By April 25, a wave of short-covering helped lift futures back to $63.02, recouping part of the week’s earlier losses.

Beyond geopolitics, changes in producers’ supply strategies drew significant market attention. OPEC+ displayed internal rifts, as some members pushed for accelerated production hikes — a stance at odds with Saudi Arabia’s official position to maintain output controls. Vessel tracking data showed a sharp increase in Saudi crude exports to Asia in April, suggesting a divergence between policy statements and actual flows. Meanwhile, Russia’s oil exports rose 8% from March levels, with deeper discounts offered to buyers in Asia, putting further pressure on Middle Eastern producers.

Macroeconomic data added to the downbeat sentiment on demand. U.S. core retail sales grew just 0.2% in April, well below expectations, signaling softer consumer momentum. Weekly gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, marking a three-month low. In China, commercial crude inventories in Shandong declined slightly, but the strategic reserve utilization rate rose to 68%, highlighting ongoing weakness in real consumption and greater reliance on policy-driven purchases.

On the technical front, the backwardation between near-month and longer-dated futures narrowed significantly, from 91 cents to 38 cents per barrel over the week, suggesting reduced concerns over immediate supply tightness. Nevertheless, the overall market structure remains under pressure. Open interest in put options remained concentrated around the $62.50 strike, indicating persistent hedging against downside risks. As for technical indicators, the 15-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded from oversold levels to 43, while MACD momentum, though still negative, showed signs of deceleration in selling pressure.

Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching the latest U.S. Baker Hughes rig count and the upcoming CFTC commitment of traders report for insights into production trends and positioning shifts. China’s April industrial profits report, set for release on April 28, will also serve as a key gauge of Asian demand prospects.

From a technical perspective, price action near the $62.80 (200-hour moving average) and $64.20 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) levels will be critical for gauging near-term market direction. Option market implied volatility indicates slightly stronger demand for upside protection relative to downside, reflecting a cautiously optimistic short-term sentiment.

(All price and data references are based on real-time market information at the time of publication.)