The euro has continued its steady climb against the U.S. dollar in recent days. As of the morning of June 16, 2025 (Asia session), EUR/USD is consolidating just below 1.1500. Despite a mild rebound in the dollar, the euro remains in a bullish posture overall. With key central bank meetings on the horizon this week, markets are entering a wait-and-see mode, and currency volatility is likely to pick up.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is trading within a well-defined upward channel. Short-term momentum still favors the upside. Trend indicators, such as the moving averages, remain aligned in a bullish formation, signaling sustained buying interest. Last week closed at 1.1534, and a decisive breakout above the 1.1625 resistance zone could open the way to test 1.1572 (April’s high), the psychological threshold at 1.1600, and potentially extend toward the October 2021 high at 1.1692.

However, if the rally stalls or short-term profit-taking emerges, look for initial support between 1.1400 and 1.1380. A break below this area could expose further downside toward 1.1335 and 1.1290. In an extended correction, key technical support levels at 1.1125 or even 1.1000 could come back into play.

On the fundamental side, the U.S. dollar remains sensitive to macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Recently released inflation figures from the U.S. came in slightly below forecasts, strengthening market bets that the Fed might begin cutting rates as early as July. This has weakened the dollar and provided support for the euro. However, geopolitical tensions and ongoing uncertainty over U.S. policy direction continue to stir market volatility.

All eyes will be on both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve this week, as they deliver their latest rate decisions and economic outlooks. If the ECB leans dovish or if the Fed signals a potential rate cut in the near term, it could push the euro higher. Conversely, more cautious language from either central bank may temper rally momentum and put pressure on the pair.

In terms of trading ranges, EUR/USD is likely to remain in a gradual uptrend with key levels between 1.1290 and 1.1625. A break above 1.1625 could fuel further gains, while failure to hold above 1.1400 could trigger increased downside risk.

With major events on the schedule and market signals still developing, caution remains essential. Avoid chasing prices and keep a close watch on upcoming central bank announcements and U.S. data releases. The near-term trend remains euro-favored, but with headline risks in play, managing positions flexibly and emphasizing risk control will be crucial to navigating the week ahead.