Gold prices have found interim support at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) after a recent period of volatility, yet the broader technical outlook remains cautious. Despite rebounding from short-term lows, the XAU/USD pair faces resistance from a bearish trend that continues to weigh on sentiment.

Technical analysis highlights that although gold recently held above the 100-day SMA, key upside resistance levels remain in play. If gold manages a sustained break above the $3,400 mark, further gains could extend toward $3,800; this scenario would require a decisive daily close above resistance. Failure to gain momentum may keep gold trapped between its established support near $3,350 and the $3,400 resistance zone.

Recent trading patterns show gold consolidating within an ascending channel formed since late 2024. Despite the corrective pullback in late June—coinciding with easing geopolitical tensions and a shift in safe-haven demand—gold has maintained its medium-term bullish structure. Factors such as a softer US dollar and expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts have helped cap losses, underscoring the metal’s appeal amid fiscal uncertainty.

Market sentiment data indicate that traders remain almost evenly split on gold’s next move, signaling indecision and potential for choppy price action ahead. Economic headlines, including trade negotiations and labor market trends, continue to influence market direction and could determine whether gold resumes its rally or revisits lower support levels.

Looking ahead, gold’s ability to hold above the 100-day SMA is crucial. If bullish momentum returns and resistance is breached, the next leg higher could materialize. Until then, cautious positioning may prevail as investors weigh competing macroeconomic forces. As always, monitoring technical support and resistance zones alongside major economic developments will be key for those navigating gold markets in the coming weeks.