Gold prices are currently at a pivotal point after testing support at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the market’s attention firmly on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. In 2025, gold (XAU/USD) has shown significant volatility, driven largely by macroeconomic events, shifting central bank policies, and persistent global uncertainties.

The metal’s immediate technical landscape suggests weakening bullish momentum, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to its lowest level since February. Major support is observed between the $2,530 and $2,500 levels; should prices break below this zone, further declines toward $2,400 and $2,300 may become likely. On the upside, resistance near $2,900 remains a crucial barrier for bulls, with additional hurdles at $3,000, $3,020, and $3,130 if gold attempts to reach new record highs.

Looking ahead, gold’s price trajectory for the remainder of 2025 will largely depend on several factors. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions—particularly whether it maintains a hawkish stance or shifts toward easing—will have a direct impact on gold’s appeal as a non-yielding safe-haven asset. Heightened geopolitical tensions, a strong recovery in the Chinese economy, or increased safe-haven demand could fuel further gains. Conversely, easing in global conflicts, stronger U.S. dollar performance, or reduced central bank demand could weigh on prices.

Analysts project a wide range for gold in 2025, with estimates for year-end prices spanning from around $3,300 to $3,800 per ounce. Technical levels and macro drivers should remain the primary focus for traders, as the interplay between global risk sentiment and central banking policies is set to dictate gold’s direction in the coming months.