Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Dovish CPI Could Set Stage for Renewed Move to $3,500.20

Gold remains poised for another leg higher if the upcoming U.S. CPI print leans dovish, as softer inflation would reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts and weaken the dollar—two key tailwinds for bullion. A benign CPI would likely lower real yields, revive risk hedging, and could reopen the path toward the prior all-time high near $3,500.20.

From a macro perspective, gold’s bull case hinges on three forces:
– Cooling inflation paired with slowing growth, which supports easier policy and compresses real rates.
– Ongoing geopolitical and election-year uncertainty that sustains safe-haven demand.
– Central bank buying staying resilient, providing a structural bid on dips.

Technically, gold has been consolidating below recent highs after failing to sustain a breakout. A decisive daily close back above the $3,300 zone would signal renewed momentum, with $3,322–$3,350 as immediate resistance. Clearing that band sets up a retest of $3,400 and, on a dovish CPI catalyst, opens the door to $3,500.20. On the downside, the 100-day moving average and layered support at $3,270, $3,243, and $3,200 are key levels to watch; a break below would risk a deeper pullback toward $3,121.

Positioning suggests near-term chop is possible, but macro momentum remains constructive if inflation moderates. A softer CPI should:
– Strengthen the probability and/or depth of 2025 Fed cuts.
– Pressure the dollar and real yields lower.
– Trigger momentum inflows back into gold and gold-linked ETFs.

Trading plan considerations:
– Bullish bias above $3,300, seeking a push to $3,350/$3,400 and, if CPI cooperates, an extension to $3,500.20.
– Neutral-to-cautious within $3,240–$3,300; wait for confirmation.
– Risk management below $3,240 with attention to $3,200 and $3,121 if CPI surprises hot.

Bottom line: A dovish CPI could be the spark that transitions gold from consolidation to trend continuation, reviving the trajectory toward $3,500.20 as policy expectations pivot and real yields ease.