Stocks to watch: Earnings movers and market sentiment

Monday’s earnings slate delivered sharp moves across several high-profile names, underscoring how unforgiving the market remains for misses—and how quickly it rewards improving fundamentals.

• BigBear.ai: Guidance shock sinks the stock
  BigBear.ai tumbled after issuing a disappointing outlook alongside results. The AI analytics firm missed key targets and cut guidance, signaling slower deal conversion and elongated sales cycles. With investors crowding into profitable AI leaders, smaller, cash-burning players are getting punished for any sign of execution risk. The sell-off reflects rising scrutiny on AI monetization timelines and the market’s intolerance for widening losses.

• Plug Power: Revenue growth, margin improvement—yet pressure persists
  Plug Power reported year-over-year revenue growth and continued progress on cost reductions and margins, but the update wasn’t enough to change sentiment. Investors remain focused on the path to breakeven, balance sheet flexibility, and hydrogen production economics. Even with operational milestones and policy tailwinds, the stock slid as the market questioned timing and durability of margin recovery.

• AMC Entertainment: Relief rally on operational progress
  AMC popped as investors responded to improving operating trends and liquidity efforts. Stabilizing attendance, ongoing cost controls, and a clearer capital plan helped the stock catch a bid. Still, the setup remains volatile: any softness in box office momentum or financing uncertainty could quickly reverse gains.

• Monday.com: High expectations meet execution reality
  Monday.com sank despite solid top-line metrics, as guidance and profitability cadence failed to match elevated expectations. In a market rewarding durable growth plus expanding margins, even a small step back in operating leverage can trigger a sharp reset. Investors are recalibrating valuations across work-management software as competitive intensity and seat expansion normalize.

Key takeaways for investors

• The market is in “show me” mode. Companies missing on earnings or trimming outlooks are getting hit hard, especially in sectors with high narrative premium (AI, hydrogen, productivity software).

• Quality and cash flow matter. Firms demonstrating consistent free cash flow improvement, disciplined spend, and clear line-of-sight to profitability are outperforming peers reliant on capital markets.

• Guidance is the catalyst. With macro uncertainty still in the backdrop, next-quarter and full-year outlooks are driving price action more than backward-looking beats.

• Valuation compression risk remains. Elevated multiples in AI-adjacent and workflow software names mean minor guidance haircuts can lead to outsized drawdowns.

What to watch next

• AI monetization: Deal win rates, contract sizes, and churn in AI analytics will determine whether smaller platforms can scale before capital costs rise again.

• Hydrogen economics: For hydrogen players, cash burn trajectories, gross margin milestones, and policy execution timelines remain critical.

• Entertainment foot traffic: Box office pipelines and pricing power will drive theater recovery durability.

• SaaS efficiency: Net revenue retention, sales efficiency, and operating margin expansion will separate durable compounders from story stocks.

Positioning ideas

• Favor companies with improving unit economics, visible margin inflection, and ample liquidity.
• Be cautious around names guiding to back-half recoveries without concrete leading indicators.
• Use volatility around earnings to scale into high-quality operators on dislocations, while avoiding “hope-based” rebounds.

Bottom line: In this earnings tape, guidance credibility and cash discipline are the difference between a pop and a plunge.