Gold prices are at a pivotal point as markets focus on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the crucial weekly close. After a robust rally earlier in the year, gold (XAU/USD) is facing conflicting signals, leaving traders and investors searching for direction.

Technical indicators reveal that gold recently closed its first bearish monthly candle since late 2024, signaling a potential shift in market momentum. The formation of a “shooting star” on the monthly chart suggests increased downside risks, as sellers appear to be gaining strength after a sustained bullish trend. On lower time frames, price action has been choppy, underlining the current uncertainty in the market.

The US Nonfarm Payrolls data remains a key catalyst. A stronger-than-expected labor market reading could boost the US dollar and pressure gold prices lower, while a weak jobs report may relieve pressure on gold, potentially reopening the path toward $3,300 per ounce and above. As gold is closely tied to US interest rate expectations and dollar movements, the employment report will likely determine gold’s short-term trajectory.

Beyond immediate catalysts, broader market forecasts remain bullish. Major institutions expect gold to remain elevated, with some projecting prices to reach or even surpass $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, citing persistent geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and ongoing economic uncertainties. However, volatility is expected, and further declines are possible if sentiment turns decisively risk-on or if economic data continues to support the US dollar.

In summary, gold is at a crossroads. Watch the NFP data and technical closes closely this week, as they could set the tone for gold’s next big move. For traders, the short-term is marked by caution, while longer-term fundamentals continue to favor gold as a strategic asset in uncertain times.