Gold prices are facing downward pressure as the US dollar strengthens ahead of key US jobs data. After reaching record highs near $3,500 per ounce in April, gold has recently experienced increased volatility and now trades in a tight range around the $3,300 mark. The shift in market sentiment is largely due to concerns over US economic growth, expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and strong recent employment data, all of which have propped up the dollar and weighed on gold.

From a technical standpoint, July closed with a bearish signal for gold, forming a shooting star pattern on the monthly chart. This marks the first clearly negative monthly close since late 2024, suggesting sellers are gaining control. Gold has also broken below a key triangle pattern, accelerating recent declines and hitting its lowest daily close in over a month. Immediate support is seen at the 100-day moving average, around $3,270. If this level fails to hold, the next significant supports are found at $3,243, $3,200, and $3,121—levels not visited since the spring price surge.

For any bullish scenario to resume, bulls need to push gold decisively back above $3,300, with stiffer resistance levels at $3,322, $3,341, and $3,350. The upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be a key catalyst, as hotter-than-expected jobs data could further strengthen the dollar and pressure gold downward, while weaker data could provide relief and prompt a rebound.

Forecasts for the remainder of 2025 remain mixed. Some analysts expect gold to average around $3,215 per ounce for the year, considering central bank buying and ongoing geopolitical concerns. Nevertheless, in the near term, the direction will likely hinge on the interplay between US economic releases and shifts in Fed policy expectations, making the upcoming jobs data particularly crucial for traders.