Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gains bearish traction below $3,350

Gold slipped back under the psychologically important $3,350 mark, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias as momentum fades after July’s reversal pattern. The monthly candle closed as a pronounced shooting star near $3,435, the first bearish monthly finish since late 2024—typically a signal of waning upside conviction and potential for deeper mean reversion. On the daily chart, price recently broke down from a multi-week triangle, registered the lowest close in over a month, and then staged a tentative bounce from the 100-day moving average around $3,270.

For bulls, the roadmap is clear: reclaim and close above $3,300 to neutralize downside pressure, then overcome layered resistance at $3,322, $3,341, and especially $3,350 to reassert control. Failure to hold above $3,300 keeps risks skewed lower, with the 100-day MA as first line support. A decisive daily close below that average would expose $3,243, then $3,200, with the $3,121 area as a pivotal line in the sand dating back to the post-April high pullback.

Positioning and seasonality complicate the picture. Retail positioning has leaned net-long, a contrarian warning that near-term softness can persist if macro catalysts fail to deliver. Meanwhile, August liquidity is often thinner, amplifying intraday swings and false breaks around key levels. On the macro side, gold remains highly sensitive to real yields and the dollar path into upcoming data. Softer labor or growth prints that pull yields down could catalyze a rebound through $3,300–$3,350; resilient data and firmer yields would likely cap rallies and press price back toward the 100-day MA.

Trading plan thoughts:
– Bullish: Prefer confirmation via a daily close above $3,300, then $3,350, targeting $3,380–$3,435 with tight risk below reclaimed levels.
– Bearish: Fade rallies into $3,341–$3,350 if momentum stalls, with invalidation above $3,350 and eyes on $3,243/$3,200.
– Neutral: Respect the 100-day MA as the pivot; sustained trade between $3,270 and $3,350 implies range tactics until a daily close breaks the stalemate.

Bottom line: Below $3,350, bears hold the edge, but the $3,270–$3,300 zone remains the battleground that will dictate the next directional leg.