Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rejected at $3,400, is testing support at $3,380

Gold’s bull run paused as XAU/USD failed to hold above the psychological $3,400 level and is now testing near-term support around $3,380. This area aligns with last week’s breakout base and short-term moving averages, making it a pivotal zone for trend continuation. A decisive daily close below $3,380 would open the door to $3,350 and the $3,320–$3,330 congestion band. Conversely, a rebound from $3,380 keeps the uptrend intact, with immediate resistance at $3,400 and then $3,425–$3,450. A clear break and hold above $3,450 would likely invite momentum buying toward the $3,500 handle.

Momentum has cooled from overbought conditions, but the broader structure remains constructive: higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, with dips still being bought. Watch RSI holding above the midline and MACD flattening—signs that consolidation may be a pause rather than a reversal. Intraday, $3,372–$3,380 is first demand; $3,358 and $3,345 sit below as secondary cushions. On the topside, sellers have repeatedly faded pushes into $3,400, indicating supply clustered just overhead.

Macro drivers still favor gold on balance. A softer dollar, rangebound real yields, and persistent geopolitical risks continue to underpin safe-haven demand. If incoming data revive Fed-cut expectations or risk appetite wobbles, dips are likely supported. Should yields firm or the dollar recover broadly, gold could extend a pullback toward deeper support before buyers re-emerge.

Trading plan ideas:
– Buy-the-dip: Look for bullish rejection wicks or a higher low above $3,372–$3,380, targeting $3,400 and $3,425, with invalidation on a daily close below $3,358.
– Breakout continuation: Enter on a clean daily close above $3,400 with volume, aiming for $3,425–$3,450; partials into strength.
– Risk management: Volatility remains elevated; size positions accordingly and avoid chasing into $3,400 without confirmation.

Bottom line: $3,380 is the battleground. Holding it keeps the path open for another test of $3,400 and potentially $3,425–$3,450. Losing it shifts focus to $3,350 and $3,320–$3,330 before the larger uptrend is reassessed.