Gold prices (XAU/USD) are currently navigating a phase of expanding consolidation, with new support and resistance boundaries emerging as traders weigh mixed economic signals and market sentiment. After a period of downside pressure, gold has stabilized above the lower boundary of a large technical triangle, buoyed by persistent demand and technical support.

The recent strength of the US dollar—driven by geopolitical events and talks of higher tariffs—has kept a lid on gold’s upward momentum. However, sustained global demand, highlighted by a 10% year-over-year increase in Q2 2025, continues to underpin prices. Central banks remain active buyers, while gold jewelry consumption remains subdued, nearly reverting to levels seen during the 2020 pandemic.

From a technical perspective, gold’s monthly chart for July closed with a bearish shooting star pattern, suggesting that selling pressure could persist. Notably, this was the first bearish monthly close since late 2024, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. On the daily chart, gold experienced a sharp drop after breaking below a previous triangle pattern, briefly touching one-month lows before finding support near the 100-day moving average around $3,270 per ounce.

For bullish momentum to resume, gold needs to establish itself back above $3,300, with further resistance seen at $3,322, $3,341, and $3,350. Conversely, a break below the pivotal 100-day moving average could expose the metal to additional downside, with support targets at $3,243, $3,200, and potentially as low as $3,121.

Looking ahead, market participants are closely watching upcoming US employment data, which could influence Federal Reserve policy and, by extension, gold’s direction. With volatility heightened and mixed technical signals, gold traders should remain vigilant as price boundaries continue to shift within this consolidative phase.