Gold prices have experienced significant volatility following the latest disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, prompting buyers to pause after initially sparking a recovery. After surging above $3,300 per ounce—a notable rally from levels near $2,409 earlier in the year—gold is now consolidating as traders assess the sustainability of this bounce amid shifting economic signals.

From a technical perspective, the July monthly candle for gold closed as a pronounced shooting star, a classic indicator that often signals potential for further downside. That close marks a shift in momentum, with sellers exerting more influence after months of bullish dominance. Daily price action has also turned cautious, slipping below recent triangle patterns and finding key support at the 100-day moving average near $3,270. For bullish momentum to resume in a meaningful way, the market needs to reclaim and close above the $3,300 threshold on a daily basis, with additional resistance at $3,322, $3,341, and $3,350. Failure to hold current levels could expose gold to further declines, with downside support found at $3,243, $3,200, and potentially as low as $3,121.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming August US inflation figures, which could determine gold’s next big move. Current inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s stated target, preserving gold’s attractiveness as a hedge against persistent price pressures. For long-term investors, any periods of stagnation or pullbacks are viewed as potential entry points, especially given gold’s historic resilience during periods of economic uncertainty.

As market participants weigh the mixed signals from both technical and fundamental standpoints, gold’s trajectory in the near term will likely hinge on how global economic data unfolds in August.