Gold (XAUUSD) prices are at a crucial juncture as market sentiment turns volatile amid heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and new geopolitical tensions. After a surge last week—the strongest daily gain in over two months fueled by sweeping new tariffs—gold is currently consolidating around $3,358 per ounce. This recent rally came as investors sought safe havens in response to fresh trade measures, which are set to take effect soon and have added a layer of uncertainty to the broader financial landscape.

However, technical signals are mixed. The gold market saw its first bearish monthly close since December 2024, suggesting that bullish momentum may be faltering. On the daily charts, gold recently dipped below a key triangle pattern and hit its lowest level in more than a month, though it found initial support at the 100-day moving average near $3,270 per ounce. Bulls aiming to regain control need to push the price decisively above the $3,300 mark, with resistance levels looming at $3,322, $3,341, and $3,350. Only a daily close above these zones would confirm renewed upward momentum.

Conversely, a sustained move below the 100-day moving average could trigger a deeper correction, targeting support levels at $3,243, $3,200, and potentially as low as $3,121—a region not seen since gold reached its record high this April.

Fundamental drivers remain supportive for gold, particularly given soft U.S. labor market data that increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut as early as September. Yet, whether bulls can hold near-term technical support will likely depend on upcoming data releases and Fed communication. In the near term, traders should watch the $3,270–$3,350 range as the battleground between bulls and bears, with major catalysts expected to shape the next breakout or breakdown.