Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rejected at $3,400, is testing support at $3,380

Gold’s latest rally stalled at the $3,400 handle, triggering a pullback to retest the $3,380 support zone. This area aligns with a short-term rising trendline and the 20-day moving average, making it a pivotal battleground for bulls. A decisive rebound above $3,400 would reopen the path toward $3,430 and the record region near $3,450. Conversely, a daily close below $3,380 exposes $3,350 first, then $3,320 as the next demand cluster.

Momentum is moderating but not broken. RSI has cooled from overbought territory, reducing the risk of a blow-off top while preserving the broader uptrend structure. MACD is flattening, hinting at consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Price remains above key medium-term moving averages, suggesting dips are being accumulated rather than distributed.

Macro drivers are mixed in the near term but constructive overall:
– Lower real yields and ongoing rate-cut expectations continue to underpin gold’s appeal versus cash.
– A softening labor backdrop and lingering geopolitical risks sustain safe-haven demand.
– A firmer dollar poses a headwind on rallies, likely enforcing a range until the next catalyst.

Trading plan considerations:
– Bullish bias above $3,380: Look for a clean intraday base and a 4-hour close back over $3,400 to target $3,430/$3,445, with invalidation on a close below $3,370.
– Range strategy: Fade extremes between $3,350 and $3,430 while momentum indicators stay neutral and volatility compresses.
– Bearish scenario only activates on a daily close beneath $3,320, which would shift focus to $3,285/$3,260.

Positioning and risk:
– Gradual scaling on dips into $3,360–$3,380 with tight risk controls suits the current backdrop of headline-sensitive moves.
– Consider partial profit-taking on approaches to prior highs; upside likely requires a fresh macro trigger such as a downside surprise in real yields or a weaker dollar impulse.

Bottom line: The rejection at $3,400 looks like routine digestion within an intact uptrend. Holding $3,380 keeps buyers in control. A break and hold above $3,400 would signal the next leg higher; lose $3,380 and a deeper, buyable dip toward $3,350–$3,320 becomes likely.