Title: Trump confirms Nvidia to remit 15% of China H20 chip sales under new U.S. deal

The U.S. has set a new precedent for AI chip exports to China: Nvidia will remit 15% of revenue from H20 chip sales to secure export licenses, following confirmation from President Trump. AMD is reportedly subject to the same framework for its MI308 GPU. The arrangement marks a shift from outright bans to a “pay-to-license” model, positioning fees as a condition for limited market access rather than lifting national security controls.

For Nvidia, the H20—an adjusted version of its high-end data center GPUs tailored to comply with prior U.S. restrictions—remains highly sought after in China. Despite months of halted shipments, pent-up demand suggests the fee could still translate into substantial payments if licenses are approved and volumes flow. Industry chatter indicates Nvidia has faced strong Chinese orders and supply constraints, highlighting how even “dialed-down” accelerators retain significant AI training and inference value.

Policy risk is far from settled. Legal experts note the U.S. Constitution prohibits export taxes, raising the prospect of court challenges over whether a 15% “fee” tied to export licensing crosses that line. If defended as a regulatory or permitting cost under national security authorities, the policy may stand—but the debate underscores the fragile legal footing and the possibility of revisions or delays.

Strategically, the move allows Washington to meter advanced compute into China, extract revenue, and maintain leverage over chip configurations. For Nvidia and AMD, the fee is a cost of preserving access to a critical market without sacrificing their flagship roadmaps for the rest of the world. Watch three swing factors: license issuance pace and scope, any expansion of the fee to future chips (including Blackwell-based variants), and legal outcomes that could reshape or unwind the structure. Investors should expect near-term headline volatility but also recognize that even constrained China sales can be material to data center revenue if licensing flows.