China, the world’s largest pork producer and consumer, is facing a major turning point in its pig industry as the government takes bold steps to address a worsening oversupply and a dramatic drop in pork prices. After years of rapid expansion and aggressive herd rebuilding in response to past crises, China is now looking to scale things back—with a plan to cut its breeding sow population by around one million heads, or about 2%, to stabilize the market and support struggling farmers.

Why Is China Cutting Sow Numbers?

The move comes as official statistics show China’s breeding sow population reached 40.43 million at the end of June 2025, far exceeding the government’s target of 39 million. This surplus stems in large part from the massive rebuilding efforts that followed the devastating African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks between 2018 and 2020, which led to the loss of millions of pigs and sent pork prices soaring at the time.

As production ramped up to fill the gap, it didn’t take long for the pendulum to swing the other way. Now, with too many pigs and weakening consumer demand, prices of live pigs have plummeted. In early August, farmers were receiving under 14 yuan (around $1.95) per kilogram for finishing pigs—down sharply from about 20 yuan a year earlier. For many, selling pigs at these levels means taking a loss. The sharp decline has prompted China’s government and industry to act swiftly to protect both the stability of the market and the livelihoods of pig farmers.

The Plan: How The Oversupply Will Be Tackled

The Chinese government has summoned leading pig producers to a key industry meeting in Beijing to discuss concrete measures to reduce breeding herds. The plan pivots on a few central strategies:
– Reducing the national sow herd by one million, or around 2%.
– Tightening control on pig slaughter weights to prevent over-finishing animals.
– Curbing the speculative practice of “secondary fattening,” where pigs are fed beyond normal finishing weights in hopes of higher future prices.

These measures are designed not just to trim excess supply, but also to prevent future volatility that could threaten both producers and consumers.

Broader Implications: Feed, Trade, and The Global Picture

The consequences of these policies are likely to ripple beyond the immediate pork market. With fewer sows and anticipated reductions in herd size, there may be a notable decrease in China’s demand for key animal feed imports, especially soymeal, which is a staple in pig diets. This comes at a time when China is already grappling with ongoing trade tensions and concerns of soybean supply disruptions later in the year. The move to rein in pig production could thus help China hedge against feed cost volatility while aligning production with realistic levels of domestic demand.

Sector Reaction and Future Outlook

For pig farmers, the government’s push for a managed reduction may offer some relief by helping bolster prices and ease immediate supply pressures. However, the industry faces a period of adjustment as farms recalibrate expansion plans and investments. Some smaller or less efficient farmers may be particularly challenged, while larger producers might have more resources to weather the transition.

The Chinese government’s hands-on approach—calling in 25 of the nation’s major pig producers for talks—demonstrates both the scale of the problem and Beijing’s commitment to ensuring a stable pork market. Given China’s share of global pork production, these shifts could have ramifications for meat and feed markets worldwide.

A Preview of What Lies Ahead

China’s efforts to cut sow numbers by a million signal a new era of more tightly managed agricultural policy. While this may steady prices in the short term, the broader pork sector will need to remain agile, responding to evolving domestic consumption, biosecurity risks, and international trade dynamics. Investors, traders, and stakeholders in the meat and feed industries will no doubt be watching closely, as what happens in China’s pig industry often reverberates across the global food economy.

In summary, China’s move to curtail its pig breeding herds is a decisive response to recent market imbalances. As supply shrinks and the sector recalibrates, farmers, traders, and policymakers alike will be looking for signs of price recovery—and for lessons that might prevent such cycles of boom and bust in the years ahead.