This year brings a perfect storm for US soybean farmers in the Midwest: China, the world’s top soybean buyer, has suspended its imports of American soybeans, choking off a vital export channel just as production costs continue to surge. Many farmers warned that profit margins have turned negative, with losses mounting as costs for fertilizer, seeds, and fuel keep climbing.

According to USDA estimates, the US will harvest 4.3 billion bushels of soybeans this fall, but there’s a major hitch: almost no Chinese demand. Historically, China accounts for over half of US soybean exports—recent data shows shipments to China collapsed to just 218 million bushels from January to August 2025, an almost 80% drop compared to 2024, with zero sales recorded over the summer. Meanwhile, Brazil has stepped in, setting new records for soybean exports to China, leaving US producers with stockpiles.

This crisis traces back to the ongoing US-China tariff war. China imposed combined duties of 34% on American soybeans, making them pricier than South American alternatives, while the US responded with subsidies to offset farmer losses. Although soybeans can be safely stored for over a year under optimal conditions, storage space is running thin as corn supplies also hit record levels, compounding the logistical headache for many Midwest producers.

Former President Donald Trump has publicly called China’s trade freeze “economically hostile,” hinting at broader retaliations, including potentially halting purchases of Chinese cooking oil. Chinese officials maintain the only way for soy trade to resume is renewed negotiations and removal of tariffs.

With the standoff showing no sign of thawing, many US farmers are turning to federal aid and searching for alternative markets. But replacing the sheer volume of Chinese demand remains a tall order. Longer-term storage can soften the blow, but falling prices and cash flow pressure continue to squeeze America’s heartland. A rebound in exports depends on a return to the negotiating table and untangling the web of trade barriers.