This year’s Christmas shopping season is about to get a lot more complicated for families looking to fill their carts with toys. The culprit? A major shift in U.S. trade policy that’s already disrupting the global toy market.

The Trump administration has imposed a 30% tariff on imports from China, where the vast majority of consumer toys are manufactured. Unlike during Trump’s first term, when many toys received exemptions from higher tariffs, there are no carve-outs this time around. The impact has been swift and measurable.

U.S. toy imports plummeted 31% in June 2025 compared to the same month last year, following a 28% year-over-year drop in May, according to data from The Toy Association. This dramatic reduction signals a fundamental shift in market availability heading into the crucial holiday season.

“Tariffs are creating serious headwinds for the toy industry and are disrupting the flow of toys into the U.S. market ahead of the crucial holiday season,” warns Kathrin Belliveau, chief policy officer at The Toy Association. “Without relief, we risk seeing fewer products on store shelves, higher costs for families, and lasting strain on the businesses that bring play to children.”

The tariff impact extends beyond Chinese-made toys. Japanese video game giant Nintendo raised the price of its Switch console by 15% in the United States in August, responding to the 15% tariffs imposed on Japanese imports. With Nintendo conducting much of its manufacturing in Vietnam—where imports face a 20% tariff—price increases became inevitable.

Small toy retailers are scrambling to adapt, with owners like those at independent toy shops rushing to purchase as much inventory as possible before tariffs take full effect. “We tried to beat the tariffs and buy as many toys as we could,” one retailer explained. Yet these emergency purchasing efforts may only provide temporary relief.

The bottom line: families should prepare for a holiday season with fewer choices and higher prices. For the toy industry and consumers alike, the tariff squeeze is real, and the effects will likely persist well beyond December.