US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently stated that he expects the Supreme Court to support the Trump administration’s tariff policies, emphasizing that tariffs are a key tool for protecting American manufacturing and national economic security. Speaking from Brussels after meetings with European lawmakers, Lutnick revealed that the government is actively advancing its tariff agenda and plans to distribute some tariff revenue as a ‘dividend’ to low- and middle-income Americans, with each eligible person potentially receiving up to $2,000.

Since President Trump announced his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in April, tariff revenues have surged, reaching $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025. The administration anticipates that if the Supreme Court upholds its policies, this revenue could be used for direct payments and to help reduce the nation’s $38 trillion debt.

However, the Supreme Court has expressed skepticism about Trump’s expansive use of tariff authority, with some justices suggesting the president may have overstepped his powers. If the court rules against the administration, importers who paid the tariffs could be entitled to refunds, which would have significant implications for government finances and businesses. The Commerce Department and the Office of the US Trade Representative have also prepared backup options, such as invoking Sections 301 and 122 of the Trade Act, to respond to a potential adverse ruling.

Small importers are voicing concerns about the impact of high tariffs, warning that increased costs could threaten the survival of small businesses. They are urging the government to consider easing measures to alleviate the burden. The Trump administration, meanwhile, maintains that tariffs will deliver tangible benefits to Americans and safeguard domestic industries.

The Supreme Court’s decision will be crucial in determining the future of tariff policy and its broader impact on the US economy and international trade.