UBS Significantly Raises Gold Price Forecasts Amid Global Uncertainty

UBS has made substantial revisions to its gold price projections, signaling increased confidence in the precious metal’s upward trajectory over the coming years. The Swiss banking giant’s analyst Levi Spry has upgraded short-term forecasts dramatically, reflecting shifting market dynamics and structural changes in global demand.

Updated Price Targets Reflect Market Confidence

The most striking change in UBS’s outlook is the predicted gold peak of $4,750 per ounce in June 2026, representing a significant jump from the previous forecast of $3,900. This substantial revision demonstrates UBS’s growing bullish sentiment on the precious metal. The analyst has increased pricing projections by 34, 32, and 33 percent for each calendar year spanning 2026 through 2028, underscoring confidence in sustained gold strength across the medium term.

Beyond these headline figures, UBS has lifted its coverage price targets by 5 to 14 percent across its gold mining recommendations, translating into projected earnings boosts for gold miners of 30 to 60 percent over the next three years. This positive outlook for mining stocks suggests that UBS expects the gold bull market to translate into real earnings growth for producers.

Structural Factors Driving Gold Demand

UBS identifies several key factors supporting continued gold appreciation. The bank highlights structural shifts in demand from both private and official sectors as a primary driver. Institutional investors and central banks appear increasingly attracted to gold as a store of value, particularly given current macroeconomic conditions.

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated globally, and this uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, UBS points to modest global growth prospects and ongoing de-dollarization trends as supportive factors. The shift away from dollar-denominated assets has encouraged central banks and international investors to diversify into alternative reserves, with gold playing a central role in these portfolio adjustments.

The combination of these structural trends suggests that gold’s strength may persist regardless of near-term economic cyclicality, providing a more durable foundation for higher prices than temporary supply-demand imbalances alone.

Mining Stock Implications

The improved gold price outlook has clear implications for mining equity valuations. UBS’s preferred mining stocks include Northern Star, Perseus Mining, Genesis Minerals, Ramelius Resources, Regis Resources, Vault Minerals, and Bellevue Gold. These selections reflect UBS’s assessment of which producers are best positioned to capitalize on higher gold prices while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.

Interestingly, UBS anticipates that different miners will pursue varying strategies, with some emphasizing growth initiatives while others prioritize capital returns to shareholders. The appropriate balance between these approaches likely depends on individual company portfolio cycles and development stage.

UBS rates Chalice Mining as neutral, maintaining a more cautious stance on this particular producer. Evolution Mining, however, receives a sell rating from UBS, suggesting the analyst sees limited upside at current valuations despite the broader sector tailwinds.

Silver Could Outperform Gold

While gold commands significant attention, UBS also highlights silver’s potential. The bank suggests that silver is likely to outperform gold during 2026, indicating potential strength in the broader precious metals complex. This nuanced view suggests investors shouldn’t ignore silver’s prospects even as gold takes center stage in market discussions.

The Road Ahead

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, policy challenges, and financial risks creates a backdrop where precious metals remain attractive. UBS’s significantly elevated gold price targets reflect this conviction, with the investment bank now anticipating a substantially higher price trajectory than previously expected.

For investors considering precious metals exposure, the revised UBS forecasts suggest that both direct gold investment and selective mining equity positions merit attention. The structural demand shifts and ongoing global uncertainties that UBS emphasizes appear likely to persist, potentially supporting the analyst’s bullish projections through 2026 and beyond.