Over the past three trading days, USDJPY has held resilient near the 153.39 close. Volatility surged around US economic data uncertainty—with the ongoing government shutdown risking delays in key CPI and PPI releases—while Japan’s economy shows persistent wage weakness and softer household spending. After Thursday’s brief JPY rally on risk aversion, buyers returned as US yields stabilized, driving USDJPY above 153 again. For traders, the landscape is choppy and full of headlines, with immediate price decision points shaped by news sensitivity and technical formations. This outlook distills the latest market fundamentals and chart signals, arming investors with actionable analysis for USDJPY’s next move.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals USDJPY firmly within a multi-week ascending channel, with major moving averages (20- and 50-day) holding a bullish posture—underpinning medium-term strength. Price has repeatedly tested the 152.60 to 153.80 consolidation zone, forming a triangle pattern that signals imminent breakout potential. MACD remains positive, suggesting bullish momentum, while Bollinger Bands point to contained volatility—not overheated yet. The RSI’s pullback respects the uptrend line, indicating corrections remain healthy and buyers are still in control.

1H Chart

Reviewing the last 40 hourly candles, USDJPY shows vigorous consolidation between 152.80 and 153.80—high-level ranging. The upward-sloping MA20 and strong support from below reinforce the bull bias. MACD displays mixed momentum, with no dramatic bearish divergence, and volume is ticking higher. Yesterday’s standout candlestick pattern was a bullish engulfing, signaling potential gains over the coming 24 hours. Bollinger Bands tightening hint at an impending volatility spike.

Technical Trend: Volatile consolidation with persistent bullish bias.

A converging daily triangle pattern plus hourly bullish engulfing suggest a potential breakout is near—supported by rising volume and persistent bullish MACD. Should USDJPY breach 153.80 upside, focus shifts to rapid momentum plays; a failed move opens a retest of 152.60 support. Key upcoming US inflation data could be the catalyst for larger price swings. Stay alert as price and headlines battle for control.
Resistance & Support

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