GBP/USD has remained within a critical range of 1.3200 to 1.3260 over the past 48 hours, with yesterday’s closing price at 1.32198, reflecting cautious market positioning ahead of major catalysts. Sterling’s resilience is primarily underpinned by the Bank of England’s dovish-constrained stance—Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized maintaining financial stability during the European session, signaling limited near-term rate-cut capacity and providing defensive support for the pound. Simultaneously, the US dollar faces persistent headwinds. The US manufacturing PMI collapsed to 48.2, with market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December surging to 87%, further undermining dollar attractiveness.

The pound has gained over 1% throughout the past week, driven principally by the UK’s autumn budget announcement. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves delivered the highly anticipated fiscal package, successfully alleviating investor uncertainty and directly propelling GBP/USD through the psychological 1.3200 barrier. However, the market has entered a consolidation phase—typically signaling a buildup before directional moves tied to major events such as Fed policy decisions. Technically, 1.3250-1.3260 forms the near-term resistance zone, while 1.3200 anchors robust support—notably coinciding with round-number psychology that commands strong participant attention. For average investors, this scenario resembles a tug-of-war: sterling gains traction from the BoE’s hawkish positioning and the UK budget’s positive signals, while the dollar weakens on Fed rate-cut expectations. The market remains at an equilibrium point, awaiting the Federal Reserve’s next move to tip the balance decisively.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows GBPUSD trading in a range between 1.3150 and 1.3250, with a slight upward bias. The Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating reduced volatility, while price remains above key moving averages suggesting bullish control. The MACD is positioned above the zero line with the MACD line trending upward, signaling sustained buying momentum. The 200-day moving average near 1.3402 forms significant resistance, but near-term upside potential remains. The daily trend reflects improving investor confidence and a bullish bias.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days shows increased volatility between 1.3190 and 1.3240. The 50-period moving average and the Bollinger Bands middle band are flat, indicating balanced short-term momentum. Recently, a bullish MACD crossover has occurred, suggesting strengthening short-term momentum. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern points to further upside in the next 24 hours. Immediate support is near 1.3200, while a break above 1.3240 may open the way for a stronger rally.

Technical Trend: GBPUSD is showing a cautiously bullish trend, characterized by steady upward movement and sideways consolidation near key resistance levels, awaiting a breakout confirmation.

Technically, GBPUSD maintains a medium-term uptrend with strong support near 1.3200. The MACD indicates a bullish momentum with a positive alignment. The hourly chart shows a bullish crossover complemented by a bullish engulfing candlestick, signaling potential for continued short-term gains. Key resistance stands at 1.3250 and 1.3300, with a break above these levels confirming a bullish breakout. Market news and economic data support the current momentum, but traders should monitor upcoming releases for volatility triggers.

Today’s economic calendar (GMT+1) features the UK’s November Services PMI release at 10:30, forecasted at 50.5, down from 52.3 previously. A weaker reading could put short-term pressure on GBPUSD. Additionally, US ADP employment data at 14:15 and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 16:00 may influence the US dollar strength. Poorer-than-expected US figures could weigh on the dollar, thus benefiting GBPUSD. No extreme market-moving events are expected, but key data releases warrant close attention for short-term price movement.

Resistance & Support

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