Here’s the thing about the global economy right now: it’s tougher than anyone expected. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development just dropped upgraded forecasts on Tuesday, and they’re actually pretty encouraging—at least on the surface.

The OECD is now predicting 3.2% global growth for 2025, a solid improvement from their June forecast of 2.9%. Even better? They bumped up U.S. growth expectations to 2%, up from 1.6% predicted just months ago. That’s good news for investors watching Washington closely.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Everyone thought Trump’s aggressive trade policy—with tariffs piling up since he returned to office in January—would absolutely tank growth. The consensus was that higher import taxes would choke consumer spending and business investment. Some companies got clever though, rushing shipments in before the tariffs kicked in. And crucially, massive artificial intelligence investments have been cushioning the blow on both sides of the Atlantic.

China’s holding steady at an expected 5% growth, while India has surpassed it as the world’s fastest-growing major economy with a projected 6.7% expansion. The eurozone, admittedly struggling, is improving to 1.3% from 0.8% last year. That’s not spectacular, but it’s movement.

Now for the reality check. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann is sounding the alarm: tariffs will gradually feed into higher prices, and that’s going to squeeze household consumption and business investment. The organization actually expects global growth to slow to 2.9% next year. Translation? This economic resilience story isn’t guaranteed to have a happy ending. Policy uncertainty remains the wildcard—and investors should stay sharp.