The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) experienced subtle yet significant market adjustments over the past 48 hours. As of November 28, USD/JPY closed at 156.17, reflecting a 0.09% decline from the previous trading session, signaling complex pressures on the US dollar in global foreign exchange markets. This movement coincides with intensifying expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts—investor bets on further US interest rate declines are driving risk assets higher while simultaneously weakening dollar appeal. Over the past week, USD/JPY touched a high of 157.075 on November 24, before retreating to 155.825 on November 25, revealing a market caught between the tug-of-war between Bank of Japan rate hike expectations and US rate cut projections.

Three major forces are colliding to drive recent price action. First, the US dollar index (DXY) has performed poorly throughout the week, falling to a 1.5-week low on Friday with a 0.08% decline, directly depressing the USD/JPY exchange rate. Second, the Bank of Japan’s recent hawkish signals—particularly as the yen approaches the 156 level—are bolstering the yen and making it the relatively stronger currency. Investors are monitoring potential intervention signals from Tokyo, while the policy stance of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government has added to market uncertainty. Third, the rise in Fed rate cut expectations is directing capital flows toward higher-yielding assets, such as Bitcoin currently eyeing the $100,000 mark, which erodes demand for low-risk dollar assets.

For the average investor, this scenario breaks down simply: imagine holding dollar deposits and considering conversion to yen. One week ago, you could exchange 1 dollar for 157.43 yen at the November 20 peak; today you receive only 156.17 yen—a clear erosion of dollar purchasing power. This shift directly impacts export and import businesses with dollar income but yen-denominated expenses. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike discussion has captured investor attention: if Japan does raise rates, the yen becomes increasingly attractive, potentially pushing USD/JPY even lower. So far this month, USD/JPY has traded between 152.87 and 157.43, reflecting market hesitation amid signals from both central banks. With month-end dollar buying providing modest support, USD/JPY is likely to consolidate between 155 and 157 in the near term until markets receive clearer policy guidance from the Fed and Bank of Japan.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals USDJPY in a steady uptrend reaching near multi-year highs. The price is consolidating around the 156 level, forming a triangle pattern. Bollinger Bands show the price hovering near the middle band, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages trending upwards, supporting a bullish long-term bias. MACD’s position above zero indicates underlying momentum but contraction in volatility calls for a breakout confirmation soon.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3 to 5 days shows USDJPY oscillating tightly around 156. Short-term moving averages are converging while Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signifying decreased volatility. MACD histogram is flattening, hinting at weakening momentum. Price consolidates with clustered support and resistance levels, heightened by potential intervention chatter from Tokyo, setting the stage for a high-probability trade setup.

Technical Trend: Consolidation with a cautiously bullish bias

Technically, USDJPY is forming a triangle pattern indicating equilibrium between bulls and bears and awaiting a breakout. The daily chart’s 50-day and 200-day MAs remain bullish, with the MACD approaching a bullish crossover, signaling rising momentum. Meanwhile, the hourly chart depicts momentum contraction and narrowing Bollinger Bands, suggesting imminent volatility expansion. The crucial price to watch is 156.50; a sustainable break above may trigger a fresh upward leg. Active traders should prepare for either scenario accordingly.

Today’s Chinese November Manufacturing and Services PMI data released at 02:30 GMT+1 slightly undershot forecasts, indicating mild economic slowdown. However, these figures have limited immediate impact on USDJPY, which remains more sensitive to U.S. and Japanese monetary policy developments. There are no other significant or direct economic events today influencing USDJPY. Traders should monitor global market sentiment and central bank communications for directional cues.

Resistance & Support

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