Gold has experienced a compelling tug-of-war in the past 48 hours. Closing at 4,207.33 USD on December 3rd, the precious metal reflects conflicting sentiments among market participants regarding US dollar trajectories and Federal Reserve policy prospects. Ahead of US ADP employment data, traders locked in profits causing a modest pullback, yet the metal subsequently rebounded as market expectations for a December Fed rate cut intensified. Current market pricing now reflects an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, which has become the critical pillar supporting gold’s rally.

Throughout the past week, gold has oscillated from late-November highs near 4,230 USD to current levels, demonstrating the constant tension between profit-taking and safe-haven demand. Concurrent weakening in the US dollar index has further enhanced gold’s appeal for dollar-denominated investors. From a technical standpoint, gold is seeking support around the 4,200 USD level, and a breakthrough above the 4,245 USD resistance could target 4,381 USD. Analysts anticipate that if gold maintains the 4,200 USD floor, the short-term objective could extend toward 4,265 USD and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below 4,200 USD could trigger a decline toward the 4,150 USD support zone.

Market catalysts will center on December 10th’s US Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Disappointing CPI data would reinforce rate-cut expectations, benefiting gold substantially. Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions and sluggish global economic growth continue supplying safe-haven demand for the metal. Market consensus suggests gold may consolidate within a 4,310-4,340 USD range by month-end, while longer-term technical targets even point toward levels exceeding 5,115 USD.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows XAUUSD maintaining an overall upward trend recently, fluctuating mainly between $4,160 and $4,250. Moving averages hold the price above key support levels, Bollinger Bands are narrowing indicating reduced volatility, and MACD histogram bars are shortening which suggests weakening upward momentum. Overall, gold is consolidating in this phase, potentially preparing for another attempt at new highs.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past five days reveals XAUUSD price fluctuating within a tight range, struggling to break above the $4,245 resistance. Short-term moving averages indicate a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The Bollinger Bands contracting reflects a consolidation phase. The MACD forms a bullish crossover from a recent bottom, indicating the possibility of a short-term rebound. Traders should watch key resistance and support levels carefully in this uncertain environment.

Technical Trend: Currently, XAUUSD is exhibiting a cautiously bullish trend with clear short-term consolidation. The market is focused on breaking resistance at $4,245 while maintaining support near $4,190.

Technically, XAUUSD faces critical resistance near $4,245. A decisive break above this level would likely trigger a new leg higher. On the daily chart, MACD bars are decreasing, signaling a temporary loss of upward momentum, while the hourly MACD bullish crossover suggests a short-term bounce. Key daily support is around $4,190; a break below this could worsen the correction. Recent candlesticks show upper shadows indicating selling pressure increasing. Short term outlook is cautious consolidation.

Today’s economic calendar shows key US data releases at 14:15 and 14:30 GMT+1, including the ADP National Employment Report and export/import prices. These events have significant potential to impact the US dollar and thus indirectly influence XAUUSD. Particularly, the ADP report is forecasted at 5,000 new jobs; any large deviation could cause sharp US dollar moves leading to quick reactions in gold prices. Other global service PMIs released today will have less direct impact on gold. Thus, US data remains the primary driver for XAUUSD today.

Resistance & Support

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