Oil Prices Spike This Week Amid Wildfires and OPEC+ Strategy

Global oil prices surged this week, driven by two key factors: severe wildfires in Canada disrupting supply and OPEC+ sticking to its gradual output increase plan without releasing extra capacity.

The wildfires in Alberta—home to a significant portion of Canada’s oil sands—have forced some production facilities to halt operations. This has raised short-term supply concerns, tightening the crude supply chain in North America and sparking worry across international markets.

At the same time, OPEC+ confirmed after its recent meeting that it will proceed with its scheduled production increase of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July—marking the third consecutive monthly hike since April. While the increase exceeded some early market expectations, the alliance stopped short of a more aggressive ramp-up, signaling a cautious approach. OPEC+ emphasized it would adjust production as needed based on market conditions, and could pause or reverse output hikes to maintain market stability.

In response, Brent crude futures rose 2.95% on Monday to close at $64.63 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 2.85%, ending at $62.52.

Analysts note that the combination of Canadian supply disruptions and OPEC+’s steady production trajectory is helping support prices in the short term.

Looking ahead, several key dynamics remain in focus: the pace of global economic recovery, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, and the rebound in China’s oil demand. Although OPEC+ is gradually rolling back its voluntary output cuts introduced late last year, global crude inventories remain tight, making the market particularly sensitive to any new supply risks.

In the U.S., signs are emerging that energy companies are reacting to the current uncertain outlook by scaling back capital spending and delaying drilling plans—an indication of a cautious stance toward future price trends.

In summary, the recent upswing in oil prices underscores the market’s heightened sensitivity to supply disruptions and global production policies. Investors should continue to monitor developments around OPEC+ decisions, the progression of Canadian wildfires, and real-time demand trends from major economies to better assess where oil prices may be headed next.