In recent weeks, the global oil market has once again taken center stage. A brief flare-up in geopolitical tensions — spurred by a U.S. military strike on Iranian nuclear sites — raised fears of a possible disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global crude flows. That concern briefly pushed Brent crude futures up to $81.40 per barrel on June 23. However, tensions cooled just as quickly when Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire the following day, sending prices tumbling below $68 a barrel. The market’s swift reversal suggests that traders weren’t overly concerned about a sustained supply interruption.

As of June 27, Brent crude had stabilized modestly at $68.17 a barrel. That’s nearly a 6% gain over the past month, but prices are still down more than 11% since the beginning of the year. Currently, oil is trading within a narrow band between $66 and $69, with volatility easing and a more cautious tone emerging among investors.

While political unrest in the Middle East hasn’t fully died down, its influence on oil prices appears to be fading for now. Attention is now turning to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6, where member states will decide on production levels for August. Russia, in particular, may push for an output increase depending on market conditions — a move that could shape the next chapter for crude prices.

On the supply side, U.S. crude inventories have declined for five consecutive weeks, hitting their lowest level for this time of year in over a decade. Cushing, Oklahoma’s stockpiles — a key barometer for supply — have also dropped to their lowest levels since February. These trends offer some support for prices, though the broader supply-demand picture remains balanced. Without a clear catalyst, Brent is likely to stay range-bound in the near term.

Looking at the options market, investor sentiment remains conservative. According to research from Goldman Sachs, there’s a 60% chance that Brent oil will trade around $60 per barrel over the next three months, and only a 28% likelihood of prices breaking above $70. This reflects a general consensus that a major supply shock is unlikely. That said, if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is seriously disrupted, Brent could spike to $90 — but as of now, markets aren’t treating that as a central risk scenario.

Institutions are also revising their medium- to long-term forecasts, with most expecting oil to remain in a tight trading range. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects Brent will average $66 a barrel this year, declining to $59 by 2026. Goldman Sachs forecasts $63 for 2025, citing mild oversupply and slowing demand growth as downward forces on prices. Wood Mackenzie, though, offers a more bullish outlook, anticipating an average of $73 in 2025. Taking all views into account, most analysts see Brent moving within a $60–$75 range, with limited upside unless new disruptions emerge.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the market will be watching two major drivers: OPEC+ supply decisions and the progression of geopolitical developments in the Middle East. If the current ceasefire holds, prices are expected to keep oscillating within a narrow window. But if tensions reignite, a short-term rebound in oil prices is certainly on the table. All things considered, the market remains cautious with a bias toward stability, as supply continues to hold steady without a clear directional trend.

In summary, while geopolitical risks have cooled off recently, the tug-of-war between supply and demand continues. Investors should keep a close eye on U.S. inventory data, OPEC+ policy shifts, and any Middle East developments to stay nimble and adjust strategies as the market evolves.