Nearly half of America is already experiencing the pain of recession, according to new analysis from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. He revealed that 22 states, plus Washington, D.C., are now stuck in persistent economic weakness, with job losses piling up and few signs of recovery. Another 13 states are “barely treading water,” showing minimal momentum and remaining vulnerable to sudden shocks.

What’s behind this regional downturn? Zandi singles out states dependent on manufacturing, farming, mining, and transportation. Recent disruptions to supply chains and uncertainty from previous trade policies have hampered business expansion and investment, slowing local economies even while national GDP figures look impressive. Slow population growth in areas like New England has also made recovery tougher, and some surprises are emerging: Georgia, for example, has seen recession take hold as high housing costs curb new arrivals and stifle economic energy.

On the brighter side, a few states are defying the trend—in particular, Pennsylvania, which is seeing unexpected strength thanks to robust education and healthcare sectors. Yet two of America’s economic giants, California and New York, are merely “hanging on.” According to Zandi, a significant downturn in either could tip the entire US economy into a national recession.

In Zandi’s words, “The overall economy isn’t in a recession yet, but risks are extremely high—one strong gust could push us over the edge.” It’s a moment when closely watching local data and planning personal finances may be more important than following national headlines.