How Trump’s Tariffs Shaped the US Economy: The Nike Swoosh Effect on Growth and Trade
President Trump’s tariffs have had a profound impact on the US economy, shaping growth, trade, and consumer prices. These tariffs, covering a large share of US goods imports, have led to significant increases in federal revenue but also substantial economic costs. Research projects a reduction in long-run US GDP by around 6% and wages by 5%, with the average middle-income household facing a lifetime loss of roughly $22,000. Tariffs raise consumer prices by about 2% in the short term, resulting in a $2,300 to $2,700 income-equivalent loss per household. Moreover, tariffs and retaliatory measures have lowered real GDP growth and increased unemployment, while reducing exports by over 17%. Despite generating billions in revenue—making them one of the largest tax increases in recent decades—the overall effect of the tariffs is a less efficient economy with sustained lower income and output levels. These economic distortions exceed those from comparable corporate tax increases, illustrating the significant trade-offs involved in tariff policies.