Africa has always been a resource magnet, but as demand for EVs, AI chips, and clean energy surges, its rare earths and critical minerals have become even more valuable. While China has long dominated the rare earth supply chain—controlling around 70% of global output—recent moves show the US rapidly closing the gap and, in some sectors, taking the lead.

In 2025, the US signed major new deals with Angola, Zambia, Botswana, and the DRC, aimed at securing supplies of cobalt, copper, nickel, and manganese. Unlike China’s state-backed, long-term access model, the US approach leans on private sector partnerships and development finance, backing African projects with billions in loans while emphasizing environmental and governance standards. The goal: build a more transparent, sustainable supply chain that can compete globally and pivot away from heavy reliance on Chinese imports.

Africa is expected to supply up to 9% of the global rare earths market with upcoming mines, putting it in a pivotal strategic position outside China. The US has set a two-year window to expand these supply lines, partnering with key allies like Japan and Australia to establish a critical minerals consortium helping African nations ramp up their own value chains.

Meanwhile, China is not standing still. Recent takeover battles—like the bid for Tanzania’s Ngualla rare earth project, where a Chinese firm outbid a US rival—show that Beijing remains highly aggressive in expanding its African mining interests. For African countries, the influx of foreign investment poses both opportunity and challenge: the real question is whether mineral-rich nations can leverage this interest into long-term prosperity and industrial development.

The outcome of this minerals showdown isn’t just about resource access—it’s about who will shape the future of green tech, AI, and global industry. Africa’s decisions in the coming years will influence how equitably its resource wealth is turned into economic growth, potentially rewriting the global supply chain map for decades to come.