On June 13, 2025, the global energy market experienced significant upheaval following Israel’s large-scale military strikes on Iran. As a result, international oil prices surged by over 10% in a single day, reaching their highest levels in months. This sudden geopolitical conflict has heightened concerns about instability in the Middle East and caught the attention of investors wary of future oil supply risks.

The dramatic rise in oil prices can be attributed to heightened supply concerns. Market data revealed that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures climbed nearly 8%, reaching $73.42 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 7.6%, reaching $74.64 per barrel. During certain trading sessions, both key contracts even recorded daily increases that surpassed 10%. Analysts point to Israel’s targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile factories, and military commanders as triggers for fears regarding the potential disruption of oil infrastructure and transportation routes in major oil-producing countries in the region.

Iran, being the fourth-largest oil producer within OPEC, plays a crucial role in global oil supply. Any escalation in the conflict could pose a threat to critical energy transport routes like the Strait of Hormuz. If these waterways are obstructed, we could see up to 20 million barrels of oil exports daily at risk, creating a far-reaching impact on the global supply chain.

In addition to oil prices climbing, traditional safe-haven assets like gold also saw a boost on the same day, with spot gold prices rising more than 1.15% in early trading. Safe-haven currencies, including the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, gained traction, reflecting a trend among market participants to seek defensive positions in light of potential uncertainties posed by geopolitical tensions.

Looking ahead, experts suggest that if tensions in the Middle East can be de-escalated quickly without significant damage to infrastructure, the recent spike in prices may gradually decline over the next two to four weeks. However, should the conflict spread to key production areas or transport hubs—such as the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz or the destruction of important refineries—prices could surge by 20-40% and remain elevated for an extended period. The ability of various countries to effectively utilize their strategic reserves to manage short-term shortages will also be a critical factor to watch.

Currently, major economies in the U.S. and Europe hold approximately 1.5 billion barrels in strategic reserves. However, stockpiles have dipped below historical averages due to previous crisis depletions. If a widespread energy crisis were to erupt, the speed at which policies are coordinated and reserves are released will directly influence market confidence and the balance between supply and demand.

In conclusion, the Israeli airstrikes against Iran have underscored the significant impact geopolitical risks can have on global energy markets. As the situation develops, investors must remain vigilant regarding potential short-term volatility while also considering long-term strategies to navigate the new uncertainties that may arise.