Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the AUD/USD pair hovered around the 0.6700 level, reflecting market pressures from reduced trading volume during the year-end holiday season. The closing price yesterday was 0.66962, showing a slight upward momentum that bolstered investor confidence in the Aussie’s recent strength.

The main driver behind this price action is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance, which has attracted buyers and pushed the AUD to a 15-month high. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s minutes are awaited with caution by the market. The uptick in precious metals prices also helped halt pressure on the Australian dollar, benefiting this commodity-linked currency.

For the average investor, this period illustrates how the market is balancing expectations ahead of the Fed’s policy signals while responding positively to the RBA’s assertive tone. With uncertainty around the U.S. dollar’s outlook, investors have shifted towards commodity currencies like the AUD, supported by rising commodity prices and solid economic fundamentals, which are key factors driving the Aussie’s recent gains.

Daily Chart

The daily chart illustrates a steady uptrend in AUDUSD since early December, with the 50-day moving average (~0.6575) and 200-day moving average (~0.6536) trending upwards, supporting a bullish outlook. The price has held above the 0.6700 level in recent days, while Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating reduced volatility. The MACD remains positive with the signal line above zero, confirming sustained medium-term upside momentum. Overall, the longer-term trend remains bullish with eyes on breaking the yearly high at 0.67275.

1H Chart

The hourly chart reflects consolidation during the last 3 to 5 days, with prices bouncing in a narrow 0.6685 to 0.6710 range. Short-term moving averages align bullishly, and the tightening Bollinger Bands suggest limited short-term volatility. Notably, the MACD shows bullish divergence, signaling potential momentum build-up. Recent candlestick formations such as small engulfing and hammer patterns reveal indecision between buyers and sellers, necessitating caution against false breakouts in the near term.

Technical Trend:  Cautiously Bullish

Technically, AUDUSD is testing critical support and resistance amidst a cautious bullish environment. The positive MACD and bullish divergence imply strengthening momentum, yet recent false breakouts warn of possible volatility traps. Maintaining above the 0.6680 support zone is crucial for sustaining upward potential towards 0.6727 resistance. However, a breakdown below support could signal short-term bearish risks. Overall, the market tone is cautiously optimistic, suggesting traders apply prudence while considering long exposure.

Today’s economic calendar from 07:00 to 17:00 HKT shows no major events directly impacting AUDUSD. Indirect influence may come from inflation and housing price data released in Spain and the US, which serve as broader market sentiment indicators. The key event remains the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes release tonight around 21:00 HKT, likely to significantly influence USD strength and thus AUDUSD price action. Other indicators such as unemployment and retail sales have limited direct impact on the Aussie today, keeping attention on US monetary policy cues.

Resistance & Support

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