Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced notable volatility, hovering around yesterday’s closing price of 1.16492. The market broadly priced in an 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which weakened the US dollar and pushed the euro higher. The euro, after a strong rebound earlier this week, briefly surpassed the key 1.1680 level, hitting a six-week high, reflecting sustained bullish control.

Additionally, disappointing US ADP employment data further pressured the dollar, pushing EUR/USD past the 1.1660 resistance, with an intraday peak at 1.16751. This movement aligns with market expectations for a more dovish Fed policy, boosting risk appetite. For the average investor, this means the market anticipates possible US interest rate cuts, weakening the dollar and shifting investor preference toward the euro for potentially better returns.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a steady upward trend for EURUSD since mid-November. Recently, the price broke above the key 1.1660 resistance level, hitting a six-week high at 1.1675. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages, at approximately 1.1590 and 1.1571 respectively, remain below current price, confirming a bullish alignment. Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating rising volatility and strong bullish momentum. The MACD recently formed a bullish crossover, further validating the upward trend.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days shows EURUSD oscillating between 1.1600 and 1.1675 with solid support at 1.1640. Price has recently climbed above the middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages. Both MACD and RSI indicators are rising, signaling strong short-term bullish momentum. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern formed yesterday suggests the next 24 hours are likely to favor further gains.

Technical Trend:  Trend Outlook: Decisively Bullish

Technically, EURUSD’s successful breakout above 1.1660 and sustained trading above this level, combined with the daily MACD bullish crossover and hourly bullish engulfing candle, underline a strong bullish momentum. The expanding Bollinger Bands alongside rising price action suggest the uptrend may continue in the near to medium term. Traders should watch the upcoming US economic releases closely as they could trigger sharp moves by influencing USD strength.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar shows modest improvements in European data, including Germany’s October factory orders increasing 1.5% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%. France and Hungary also report slight industrial production gains. Meanwhile, key US releases such as September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) at 14:30 and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 16:00 hold significant sway for EURUSD. Stronger US data could temper USD weakness and weigh on EURUSD, while weaker figures support the euro. Overall, no direct major events impacting EURUSD are scheduled today, but US data remains critical later on.

Resistance & Support

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