Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD has been trading firmly around the 1.1750 range, with yesterday’s closing price at 1.17494, showing overall stability. The market’s focus was drawn to the latest US jobs report, which highlighted a slowdown in US employment growth, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve might ease its monetary policy.

The weak US labor data signals potential headwinds for the US economy, prompting investors to reassess the Fed’s rate outlook and turn more bullish on the euro against the dollar. This news helped the EUR/USD break above the significant resistance at 1.1765, reaching an intraday high of 1.17944.

For the average investor, this scenario is like witnessing a major economy’s employment outlook soften suddenly, followed by expectations of central bank easing to support growth, which usually strengthens that currency. For euro holders and traders, this suggests potential further upside in the near term, while dollar holders should be cautious of possible downside pressure.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD in a steady uptrend, with prices gradually moving higher within the 1.16 to 1.18 range and now breaking through resistance. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are aligned bullishly, with price consistently testing the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong trending momentum. The MACD indicator confirms growing upward momentum with expanding histogram bars. Overall, the daily chart signals a continuation of medium to long-term bullish momentum for EURUSD.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days shows EURUSD trading in a range between 1.1730 and 1.1790 with short-term bullish signals. The 50-period MA has recently crossed above the 200-period MA, forming a golden cross that suggests strengthening upside momentum. Bollinger Bands have begun to widen, signaling increased volatility. MACD lines are diverging further, supporting the likelihood of an upward move. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick indicates near-term price strength within the next 24 hours.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is decisively bullish, with strong momentum supported by converging bullish fundamentals and technicals.

Technically, the MACD golden cross and Bollinger Band expansion signal accelerating momentum supported by the daily uptrend, suggesting a potential breakout above 1.1765. The multi-timeframe bullish alignment makes a strong case for long positions. Traders should watch the key support at 1.1720 and resistance at 1.1790, given potential volatility around today’s data releases for high-probability trade entries.

Today’s economic calendar features key events relevant to EURUSD, including the EU and UK Consumer Price Index releases mid-day which will be critical in assessing ECB’s policy direction. Additionally, speeches from US Federal Reserve officials in the afternoon and evening could influence the dollar’s strength. If the European CPI matches or exceeds expectations, it should bolster the euro. Contrarily, continued softness in US economic data may weigh on the dollar, further supporting the EURUSD pair.

Resistance & Support

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