Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair has shown continued volatility, with yesterday’s closing price at 1.17248. The euro weakened amid economic data from both the US and Europe, slipping from around the 1.1750 area and briefly breaking below the 1.1800 mark.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has modestly risen, reflecting dollar strength as the dollar recovered early losses on Thursday, putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. This movement is largely driven by benign US inflation data, which tempered expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes but maintained steady demand for the dollar.

Meanwhile, the ECB’s pause in rate hikes and weak German IFO business sentiment weighed on the euro. For the average investor, this signals potential short-term pressure on the euro against the dollar, making it crucial to watch forthcoming US and European policy decisions and economic data to gauge currency direction.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a sustained rebound trend throughout the year with some adjustment recently, with the price hovering slightly below 1.17. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages signal bullish support, but increased volatility is evident. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential consolidation phase. The MACD is above zero but flattening, suggesting momentum is weakening and trend continuation may face challenges.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days reveals clear volatility with short-term support tested near 1.1720. Recent MACD bullish divergence suggests a possible short-term rebound. Price oscillates between Bollinger Band edges, reflecting uncertainty. The 200-hour moving average serves as a critical support level; a break below could trigger further downside.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD currently exhibits a cautious sideways consolidation trend with a slight bearish bias. Momentum indicators suggest weakening strength, requiring a confirmed breakout to define the next trend direction.

Technically, EURUSD faces resistance around the 1.1750 zone, with a short-term breakout unlikely. Daily MACD flattening and hourly chart bullish divergence offer a short-term positive signal hinting at a potential technical rebound. Key to watch is support at 1.1720; a break below could intensify bearish pressure. Traders should stay alert to market sentiment shifts and align strategies with unfolding economic data.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar features relevant Eurozone data such as Germany’s November Producer Price Index and EU Current Account figures, though expected impact on EURUSD is limited. In the US, at 16:00 GMT+1, University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation outlook data will be released. Stronger-than-expected US data may boost the dollar and pressure EURUSD further. Overall, no major direct events are scheduled today to dramatically alter EURUSD’s trend, but traders should watch US data for momentum cues.

Resistance & Support

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