Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair has traded sideways, hovering close to yesterday’s closing price of 1.16279 with only a slight loss of 0.09%. Market participants remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate decision and Chairman Jerome Powell’s guidance. During this period, the US dollar has strengthened somewhat, supported by rising US Treasury yields, putting mild pressure on EUR/USD. However, solid recent economic data from Germany and expectations of a hawkish European Central Bank have provided underlying support for the euro.

In simple terms, this price action is like investors holding their bets before an important meeting, unwilling to make bold moves while the dollar and euro engage in a tug-of-war, awaiting clearer direction. The prevailing calm reflects heightened investor focus on upcoming policy signals, rather than short-term price swings amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD in a gentle uptrend since the start of the year, currently stabilizing above 1.16 and fluctuating near the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate reduced volatility, while the MACD remains positive but with weakening momentum. The overall trend leans modestly bullish but caution is warranted for any breakdown below moving averages that could signal a reversal.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past five trading days reveals a clear lateral movement with prices oscillating between 1.1620 and 1.1660. Moving averages are intertwined, Bollinger Bands are narrow without breakout signals, and MACD shows minor crossovers lacking strong directional confirmation. The near-term momentum is lacking, suggesting continued consolidation until the upcoming FOMC meeting provides a catalyst.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD currently exhibits a cautious consolidation phase with a mild bullish bias, heavily dependent on the imminent FOMC decision. The trend can be described as ‘Cautiously Bullish’.

Technically, MACD is approaching a potential bullish crossover but momentum remains unclear. Daily Bollinger Bands are contracting, signaling a likely breakout soon; key resistance lies near 1.1660, with support at 1.1620 below. Recent candlestick patterns do not indicate strong reversal signals, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach. Watch for confirmation of MACD cross or a breakdown below support for trading opportunities.

Today, market focus is on the U.S. FOMC interest rate decision and Powell’s press conference scheduled at 20:00 and 20:30 GMT+1 respectively, which will have a direct impact on USD strength and subsequently EURUSD price action. Other data such as Norway’s CPI and Canada’s rate decision have limited relevance to EURUSD. Expect elevated volatility and directional cues based on Fed’s stance on rate cuts or hawkish signals.

Resistance & Support

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