Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the AUD/USD pair continued its downward trend, slipping from yesterday’s closing price of 0.66809 to near 0.6676, showing clear weakness. This decline was mainly driven by US labor market data and policy signals. Recent market news highlighted mixed US labor market indicators combined with shifts in US foreign policy early this week, which boosted the US dollar and weighed on the Australian dollar.

For the average investor, this signals that the AUD has been under pressure from both external and internal factors recently. Australia’s trade figures showed a significant shrinkage in its surplus, increasing market caution towards the AUD. Furthermore, disappointing economic data from China, a key trading partner, added to the downside for the Aussie. Taken together, these developments demonstrate how geopolitical and economic uncertainties are currently impacting currency markets, leading to the continued fall in AUD/USD.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a clear downtrend for AUDUSD over recent weeks, with prices consistently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating sustained medium-to-long-term bearish momentum. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting decreasing volatility, but the overall trend remains bearish. The MACD stays below the zero line with bearish alignment of the MACD lines, reinforcing the negative momentum. Overall, the daily chart signals persistent selling pressure and limited upside in the near term; watch closely for the pair’s ability to hold above the key 0.6680 support.

1H Chart

Examining the last 3-5 days on the hourly chart, AUDUSD displays a descending channel with multiple failed attempts at rebounds against the short-term downtrend line. The 50 and 200-period moving averages remain bearish. Bollinger Bands contraction indicates limited short-term volatility, with price hovering around the middle band. MACD, while negative, shows some crossover activity suggestive of a potential short-term bounce. Recently, a hammer candlestick with a long lower shadow emerged, hinting at tentative buying interest, but confirmation with volume is required.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is cautiously bearish, characterized by a sustained downward trajectory with some short-term consolidation and increased volatility.

Technically, the 0.6680 support level is critical for AUDUSD; holding it may lead to a technical rebound. The MACD remains bearish but the recent hammer candlestick indicates potential for some short-term correction. Market expectations regarding US labor data appear priced in. Should data exceed forecasts, the USD could strengthen further, pressuring AUDUSD lower, while weaker numbers may support a bounce. Traders should monitor volume shifts and MACD signals closely to identify high-probability trade entries or exits.

There are no significant or directly relevant economic events scheduled today impacting AUDUSD. Traders should remain focused on the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data release, which will be a key driver for the pair in the near term.

Resistance & Support

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