Over the past 24 to 48 hours, EUR/USD has maintained a firm tone, holding near its fresh multi-month high at 1.1907, with yesterday’s closing price at 1.19817, indicating the euro is approaching the vital 1.20 resistance level. Market sentiment was swayed by multiple factors, notably the unrest in Minneapolis, which heightened risks of a US government shutdown due to budget deadlock, putting downward pressure on the US dollar.

Additionally, with the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, expectations for rate cuts later this year have further weighed on the dollar. The euro has thus benefited from the weakened dollar, attracting robust buying activity. UBS’s 2026 Euro-to-Dollar forecast also supports continued euro gains, particularly through the first half of the year. Overall, investors are seeking safe havens amid dollar weakness and geopolitical risks, positioning the euro as a favored asset.

For the average investor, this euro rally reflects the direct impact of global economic and policy uncertainties on currency markets. With the dollar under pressure and political-economic variables in the US, holding euros or euro-related assets may offer better capital protection and growth potential. The market is currently awaiting Fed actions and US political developments to chart the next move.

Daily Chart

The daily chart of EURUSD reveals a steady uptrend, with price moving confidently from recent lows and breaking above multiple moving averages. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages maintain a bullish alignment indicating a long-term upward trend. Bollinger Bands are expanding, signaling increased volatility, yet prices remain near the upper band which indicates bullish strength. The MACD is showing sustained positive momentum without bearish divergence, reinforcing the ongoing bullish structure of the daily timeframe.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart covering the last 3 to 5 days, EURUSD continues its robust ascending trajectory. Price has tested the resistance zone around 1.198 to 1.20 multiple times, with short-term moving averages like the 20-hour MA providing consistent support. Bollinger Bands are moderately expanding, and the MACD has just formed a bullish crossover, indicating strengthening short-term momentum. A recent bullish engulfing candlestick signals a high chance of further gains over the next 24 hours, confirming an aggressive short-term bullish outlook aimed at breaking the 1.20 level.

Technical Trend:  Decisively Bullish

Technical insights confirm EURUSD is in a pronounced bullish trend, supported by multiple technical indicators. The daily chart’s bullish moving averages and the price near the upper Bollinger Band suggest a potential breakout. The hourly chart’s bullish engulfing pattern and MACD crossover further enhance momentum, signaling a favorable environment for continuation. Increasing volume underscores buyer enthusiasm as price nears the key 1.20 psychological resistance. Traders should watch for possible short-term volatility amidst attempts to breach this crucial barrier.

Today’s economic calendar is relatively light on major Euro-related events, with stable consumer confidence readings in France and steady unemployment data from Spain and Poland offering limited impact on EURUSD. Key US releases in the afternoon include multiple housing price indices and consumer confidence data; if these miss expectations, the USD may weaken further, providing added support for EURUSD. Overall, no immediate significant direct events are scheduled to cause drastic EURUSD moves today, but traders should monitor US data for directional cues.

Resistance & Support

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