Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the GBP/USD pair surged toward the 1.3780 level during the North American session, surpassing yesterday’s closing price of 1.36764. The pound’s strength was primarily driven by a weakening US dollar, pressured by escalating trade tariffs and resulting market concerns. Concurrently, stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data boosted confidence in the UK’s economic resilience, providing solid support for the pound.

Furthermore, divergences in economic data between the US and UK—particularly around labor market reports and inflation indicators—have favored the pound, which has maintained strong buying momentum against the dollar. The recent consolidation near multi-month highs reflects market anticipation ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, with investors optimistic about the UK’s economic outlook.

For the average investor, this translates to GBP/USD’s recent gains being influenced by a mix of macroeconomic fundamentals and geopolitical risks. The dollar’s softness amid policy uncertainty and trade tensions has lifted major non-dollar currencies like the pound. Moving forward, any clarity in US policy or continued UK economic strength could sustain the pound’s rallies. Traders should closely monitor policy developments and economic releases to capitalize on potential market movements.

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, GBPUSD has formed a clear ascending channel since late last year, consistently breaking through short-term resistance levels. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, confirming a medium to long-term bullish trend. Bollinger Bands are expanding alongside rising prices, indicating increased volatility but steady trend strength. The MACD remains above zero with the fast line over the slow line, continuing to signal buying momentum. Overall, the daily technical setup points to further attempts to challenge and possibly surpass yearly highs around 1.3780+.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 3-5 days shows GBPUSD maintaining a rising trend with brief pullbacks followed by quick recoveries. Price action is consolidating in a narrow range between 1.3750 and 1.3790 with an upward bias. Short-term EMAs (20 and 50) are aligned bullishly, supporting price stability. Bollinger Bands slowly widen while prices hover near the upper band, reflecting strong buying pressure. The MACD remains positive and expanding, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Traders should watch for potential entry points on short-term dips within this constructive phase.

Technical Trend:  The current trend direction is strongly bullish, with GBPUSD showing clear and sustained upward momentum supported by both technical signals and positive market sentiment.

Technically, the daily golden cross and rising MACD reinforce the bullish foundation, while hourly tight consolidation suggests market gearing up for a breakout. The 1.3780 resistance is pivotal—clearance could trigger accelerated buying. Recently, a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern appeared, signifying buyers retaking control for the next 24 hours. Bollinger Band expansion points to room for further upward movement. Traders should monitor volume changes closely to identify high-probability trade entries amid this volatility build-up.

The economic calendar today in GMT+1 features Sweden’s trade balance and Producer Price Index, France’s Consumer Confidence, and unemployment data from Spain and Poland. These European releases hold limited direct impact on GBPUSD. Later US reports on housing prices and consumer confidence could influence the pair. Stronger-than-expected US data might bolster the dollar and pressure GBPUSD, whereas softer data would favor the pound. Overall, there are no major direct events today expected to drive significant volatility in GBPUSD, so price action will likely be steered by ongoing technical and fundamental dynamics.

Resistance & Support

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