Over the past 48 hours, the USD/JPY pair fluctuated between 153 and 154, closing around 153.80—up approximately 0.78 points from yesterday’s closing price of 153.02—indicating some resilience in the dollar against the yen. The market was mainly influenced by several factors including weak recent Japanese economic data, shifts in central bank policy outlook, and rumors of possible US-Japan currency intervention.

Recent inflation and retail sales data from Tokyo showed softness, which reduced market expectations of imminent Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes, causing the yen to face near-term pressure. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran have heightened risk aversion, further impacting the dollar and yen volatility. The evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve’s policies has supported the dollar, pushing USD/JPY higher.

Additionally, there is growing market speculation about potential joint intervention by Japanese and US authorities to curb yen volatility, especially as the yen nears historic lows. Intervention rumors have intensified pressure on the yen to strengthen. However, the US Treasury Secretary’s public rejection of intervention has temporarily supported the dollar.

For the average investor, the recent currency moves demonstrate how macroeconomic data and geopolitical risks directly affect currency prices. The yen, as a traditional safe-haven currency, is caught between domestic economic constraints and international political events. When Japanese economic data weakens yet geopolitical risks rise, USD/JPY experiences increased swings, underscoring the importance of monitoring economic indicators and political developments to manage risk effectively.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals USDJPY in a consolidation phase within a broader upward trend from lows near 139 to highs approaching 159. The 21- and 50-day moving averages are converging, indicating a critical battleground between bulls and bears. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signaling decreased volatility and a possible upcoming breakout. The MACD is near the zero line, showing weakening momentum. Overall, the pair is in a tactical pause awaiting a decisive directional move.

1H Chart

Examining the hourly chart over the last 5 days, USDJPY has oscillated between 152.8 and 154.2, testing the 153.80 resistance multiple times without clear breakout. A head-and-shoulders bottom formation is emerging, especially highlighted by recent support tests, suggesting potential short-term upside momentum. Moving averages are mixed, while Bollinger Bands encapsulate a tight range and MACD lines hint at early crossover, underscoring a short-term consolidation awaiting direction. Watch key levels at 153.80 resistance and 152.85 support for next moves.

Technical Trend:  Current Trend: Cautiously Consolidating Bullish

Technically, USDJPY’s daily chart compression alongside an imminent MACD bullish crossover and narrowing Bollinger Bands points to a potential breakout soon. The hourly chart’s evolving head-and-shoulders bottom looms as a positive short-term reversal pattern. The pair remains trapped in a broader 153.80 resistance zone and 152.85 support band; a break of either will guide the next directional leg. Intervention rumors add an unpredictable factor, advising cautious trade management and tight stops to mitigate risk.

Today’s Japanese economic calendar includes core CPI, unemployment, industrial production, and retail sales scheduled before Asian market close. Tokyo core CPI came in slightly below forecast at 2.0% y/y versus 2.2% expected, with retail sales disappointing expectations. These figures reduce likelihood of BoJ tightening in near term, potentially weighing on USDJPY. Later, US Core Producer Price Index data will be released; stronger-than-expected numbers could strengthen USD, pushing USDJPY higher. No immediate surprise events, but key data releases suggest currency pair volatility tied to economic fundamentals.

Resistance & Support

The above financial market data, quotes, charts, statistics, exchange rates, news, research, analysis, buy or sell ratings, financial education, and other information are for reference only. Before making any trades based on this information, you should consult independent professional advice to verify pricing data or obtain more detailed market information. 1uptick.com should not be regarded as soliciting any subscriber or visitor to execute any trade. You are solely responsible for all of your own trading decisions.