Over the past 24 to 48 hours, AUD/USD experienced notable volatility, particularly following the release of Australia’s January consumer price index (CPI) data. The inflation rate came in at 3.8%, surpassing expectations, which propelled the Australian dollar upwards, reaching a high of 0.71365, clearly improving from the previous close at 0.7104.

According to the latest market news, both the Australian and New Zealand dollars are continuing their primary trend movements, with the market anticipating a significant directional move. This has kept AUD/USD strong in the short term, although resistance was seen near the yearly high of 0.7147, limiting further upside. Broadly, the inflation data boosted expectations for more hawkish policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia, underpinning the currency’s upward momentum.

For the average investor, it means a key economic indicator has exceeded market forecasts, directly impacting currency valuation. In simple terms, Australia’s economic momentum has reinforced confidence in the AUD, pushing the exchange rate to new highs while signaling possible upcoming adjustments.

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, AUDUSD shows a significant rebound from earlier lows this year, steadily climbing along the 20-day moving average. The price is currently testing resistance near 0.7120 with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating increased volatility. MACD remains in positive territory without strong divergence, suggesting sustained bullish momentum. Price is positioned above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a medium-to-long-term bullish trend.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the last 3-5 days shows a consolidation phase following a breakout above the 20MA, with price fluctuating between 0.7070 and 0.7120. Bollinger Bands are open, signaling higher short-term volatility. The MACD histogram has turned positive from negative, signaling a potential short-term momentum shift higher. The imminent golden cross between the 5 and 20-period moving averages suggests an approaching new rally.

Technical Trend:  AUDUSD shows a cautiously bullish trend, consolidating before a probable breakout, with an overall positive directional bias.

Technically, strengthening MACD bullish momentum and a bullish moving average alignment support short-term entries. The daily chart marks the 0.7110-0.7140 zone as critical resistance—its breakout would attract aggressive buying pressure. The upward turn in the 20MA on hourly data highlights further buying potential, especially if price breaks above consolidation. Volume confirmation will be critical for validating momentum continuation.

Today’s economic calendar features Australia’s quarterly private capital expenditure data release at 01:30 GMT+1 (08:30 HKT), with forecasts pointing to a positive 0.4% q/q growth, better than the previous -0.1%. This data is likely to have a direct and positive impact on AUDUSD. Later US releases such as weekly jobless claims and Kansas City Fed manufacturing index are also relevant. Overall, today’s events provide fundamental support to the Australian dollar, likely supporting a continued bullish bias for AUDUSD.

Resistance & Support

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