Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair displayed notable volatility, closing yesterday afternoon at 1.17778, a slight increase of 0.033% from the previous close of 1.17738. The market was strongly influenced by several key factors during this period, notably the U.S. Dollar Index gaining ground amid a jump in the U.S. Consumer Confidence index to 91.2, which reinforced dollar strength and exerted downward pressure on EUR/USD.

According to the latest market news, the Consumer Confidence index for February surged from 84.5 in January to 91.2, signaling a more optimistic economic outlook and fueling increased demand for the U.S. dollar. This dollar strength, combined with upcoming Federal Reserve officials’ speeches, added uncertainty to the market and weighed on the euro. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff ruling stirred concerns over potential shifts in bilateral trade policies, further contributing to short-term market volatility.

For the average investor, the recent fluctuations in EUR/USD illustrate a scenario where the dollar acts as a strengthening safe-haven amid rising consumer confidence, placing pressure on traditional risk assets like the euro. Investors should closely monitor Federal Reserve commentary and consumer confidence data, as these will directly influence dollar momentum and the broader direction of the euro.

Daily Chart

The EURUSD daily chart illustrates a consolidation phase between 1.1700 and 1.1850. The price is oscillating near the 50-day moving average, with the 200-day MA providing longer-term support around 1.1687. Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating reduced volatility and a market in wait-and-see mode. The MACD lines are closely aligned, signaling weak momentum without a clear bullish or bearish bias. The daily timeframe remains crucial, with a breakout above or breakdown below current bands likely to define the next directional move.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart covering the last 3-5 days, EURUSD shows short-term oscillation, repeatedly testing resistance near 1.1780 and support around 1.1770. Moving averages converge, with short-term MAs attempting a bullish crossover but not yet confirmed. The MACD histogram contraction suggests ongoing consolidation. A recent hammer candlestick with a long lower shadow signals buyers’ tentative support, but confirmation through volume or follow-through is needed for bullish momentum.

Technical Trend:  The current trend is cautious sideways consolidation with decreasing volatility, indicating indecision between bulls and bears.

Technical analysis reveals EURUSD is currently testing short-term support near 1.1770. Losing this level may trigger further declines toward 1.1765 or below. While a definitive ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart is not confirmed, a breakout could lead to a short-term rally. The presence of a hammer candlestick indicates some buying interest. The MACD indicator hovering near zero highlights an impending momentum shift, combined with narrowing Bollinger Bands signaling a volatility squeeze. Monitoring volume and confirming technical indicator crossovers will be key to identifying timely trade opportunities.

Today’s economic calendar includes key Eurozone events such as Germany’s finalized Q4 GDP figures expected at 0.3% quarter-over-quarter and January’s finalized Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices forecasted at 1.7% year-over-year. These economic indicators will release between 08:00 and 11:00 GMT+1 and are vital for EURUSD price action. Stronger-than-expected readings would likely bolster the Euro and pressure the USD, while weaker data could reinforce the dollar’s strength. Additionally, U.S. Fed officials Barkin and Schmid will speak at 15:35 and 17:00 GMT+1 respectively, potentially adding to intraday volatility. Traders should remain alert to these events for potential market-moving impacts.

Resistance & Support

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