Over the past 24 to 48 hours, the EUR/USD pair has experienced notable volatility and a slight pullback. Yesterday’s closing price was around 1.1866, with intraday fluctuations between 1.1839 and 1.1875. Market focus centers primarily on the shifting expectations around the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair position, especially as Kevin Warsh emerges as a leading candidate, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on the euro.

Kevin Warsh’s rising prospects as the next Fed Chair have led market participants to anticipate a more hawkish monetary policy stance, driving capital inflows towards the U.S. dollar and weakening the euro. Meanwhile, policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed has intensified, with the Fed’s strength resulting in limited downside for the euro during this period. Market participants remain cautiously watchful of the euro’s near-term trajectory.

For the average investor, this means that recent exchange rate movements are highly influenced by policy personnel shifts and market expectations. A stronger dollar reduces the cost of U.S. imports but puts pressure on euro-denominated assets due to currency depreciation. Investors should keep a close eye on key Fed appointments and the ECB’s response, as these will continue to shape EUR/USD dynamics in the short term.

Daily Chart

The daily chart shows EURUSD in a mild uptrend over recent weeks with prices above the 50-day MA (~1.1732) and 200-day MA (~1.1669), indicating prevailing long-term bullish momentum. However, upward pressure has eased recently. Bollinger Bands constriction suggests decreasing volatility, and price encounters strong resistance near 1.1900. Failure to break this barrier may lead to a corrective phase. The MACD line is flattening without a clear crossover, warranting close observation for momentum shifts.

1H Chart

The hourly chart over the past 5 days reveals volatility with failed attempts to sustain above the 100-hour SMA, particularly near the 1.1880 to 1.1900 resistance zone. Bollinger Bands expansion signals increasing short-term price swings. The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, suggesting rising selling pressure. Multiple hammer and doji candlesticks highlight market indecision. The near-term trend is sideways to slightly bearish with key support at 1.1820 crucial to watch.

Technical Trend:  The trend is cautiously bearish in the short term with heightened volatility due to Fed chair announcement effects. Long-term trends remain bullish but short-term trading favors a consolidative to weak tone with a possible downward tilt.

Technically, EURUSD faces critical resistance at 1.1900 and the confluence of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages that could cap rallies. The MACD bearish crossover on the hourly chart and inability to hold above the 100-hour SMA indicate short-term downward momentum. Breach of the 1.1820 support would confirm further corrective erosion. The recent consolidation resembles a pennant or triangle pattern that precedes a breakout, so traders must watch for volume spikes and momentum shifts signaling strong directional moves.

Today’s calendar includes several Eurozone manufacturing PMI releases, expected to improve modestly from 48.8 to 49.4, potentially providing slight support for EURUSD. However, the focus is on US ISM Manufacturing data expected near previous levels. Better-than-expected US data could boost the USD and pressure EURUSD lower. Overall, no major direct event is scheduled to drastically move EURUSD today, but the clustered manufacturing PMIs worldwide will provide useful directional cues.

Resistance & Support

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