Over the past 24 to 48 hours, EUR/USD has shown a steady upward trend, closing yesterday at around 1.1831, slightly higher than the previous day. The price movement during this period was mainly influenced by the release of the US Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations data scheduled for 15:00 GMT today. Changes in consumer sentiment and inflation expectations directly affected the US dollar’s performance, subsequently impacting the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Additionally, market attention focused on comments from ECB President Lagarde. While investors generally expect a “wait-and-see” stance, any guidance she provides regarding the euro’s recent breakout remains a key factor for bulls and bears alike, contributing to the volatility seen in the EUR/USD in recent days. The US dollar’s stabilized rebound has somewhat capped euro gains; however, due to uncertainties surrounding US political and economic policies, the euro has demonstrated resilience against declines.

For the average investor, the recent EUR/USD fluctuations highlight the sensitive influence of global macroeconomic indicators and policy rhetoric on the forex market. The mild oscillations ahead of major data releases remind investors to stay alert and closely monitor economic releases and policy signals to avoid missing out on opportunities amid short-term volatility.

Daily Chart

The daily chart reveals a clear bullish trend for EURUSD, with prices climbing steadily since early 2026 and having broken above the critical 1.18 resistance. The 50-day moving average at 1.17518 sits above the 200-day moving average at 1.16779, forming a bullish golden cross that reinforces the positive outlook. Bollinger Bands have begun expanding after a recent squeeze, signaling increased volatility. The MACD indicator shows growing positive momentum with rising histogram bars, confirming buying strength. Overall, the trend is steady and optimistic but watch for resistance near the high levels.

1H Chart

On the hourly chart covering the past 3-5 days, EURUSD has experienced heightened fluctuations, oscillating between 1.1820 and 1.1850. Short-term EMAs such as the 20 and 50 are aligned bullishly, with multiple pullbacks testing support followed by quick rebounds. Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the upper band near 1.1870 acting as resistance. MACD is forming a potential golden cross, indicating increasing momentum. A subtle triangle consolidation pattern suggests an imminent breakout. Traders should watch closely for a break above 1.1870 or a pullback trade opportunity.

Technical Trend:  EURUSD is currently in a decisively bullish trend with short-term consolidation but sustained upward momentum, reflecting a Cautiously Bullish phase.

Technically, the golden cross on the daily chart combined with rising MACD momentum signals sturdy bullish potential for EURUSD. The hourly chart’s triangle consolidation pattern indicates near-term breakout prospects. Yesterday’s long lower wick candlestick highlights buyer absorption near lows and strengthens short-term bullish bias. Should the Sentix data and ECB speech be positive, expect price to test resistance at 1.1870 and possibly beyond. Conversely, renewed USD strength could induce downside pressure. Traders should monitor MACD crossovers and Bollinger Band boundaries for timely entry signals.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar highlights Japanese current account data early in the session, which unexpectedly contracted but holds limited sway over EURUSD. In the Eurozone, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index will be released at 10:30, offering a sentiment snapshot but not a major mover. The ECB President Lagarde’s speech at 17:00 is the most significant event likely to drive EURUSD price action today. On the U.S. side, no high-impact economic releases are scheduled, though two FOMC members will speak later. Overall, attention is firmly on ECB commentary as the main catalyst for EURUSD movement.

Resistance & Support

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