Over the past 24 hours, the GBP/USD exchange rate showed notable fluctuations, ranging between 1.3586 and 1.3620, ultimately closing at 1.36045, slightly down 0.04% from yesterday’s close of 1.36102. Overall, the market showed mild pressure reflecting investor caution amid a recent resurgence of the US dollar.

The key driver behind this movement was the latest US ISM Services PMI report which surged unexpectedly to 54.4, well above the forecasted 52.3, indicating continued robust US economic activity. This stronger-than-expected data fueled expectations of a hawkish Fed stance, strengthening the greenback and directly pressuring the British pound.

In addition, sterling’s modest weakness is also tied to the upcoming Bank of England policy decision, which has contributed to cautious trading ahead of the announcement. Overall, strong US economic data triggered dollar demand as a safe haven and capital inflow, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD and adding short-term uncertainty for traders.

For the average investor, this means recent currency movements carry elevated volatility risks. Those holding pound positions face headwinds from a strengthened dollar, suggesting the need to closely monitor US economic data and UK central bank policy updates, ensuring prudent risk management and portfolio adjustment.

Daily Chart

Analyzing the daily chart, GBPUSD has declined steadily from the recent one-month peak at 1.3876, marked by several consecutive bearish candles indicating strong selling pressure. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain in an uptrend, suggesting the current pullback is a healthy correction. Bollinger Bands are contracting, signaling subdued volatility as the market awaits a decisive move. The MACD is in negative territory but nearing the zero line, indicating fading selling momentum. Overall, the daily chart shows a consolidation phase post decline, with potential for a steady rebound or further trend clarification.

1H Chart

The hourly chart reveals GBPUSD has been trading in a downtrend over the last 5 days with consolidation around the 1.35 level. The 9- and 21-period EMAs are intertwined, signaling short-term indecision. The Bollinger Bands’ middle band is slightly declining, with price oscillating between the middle and lower bands, hinting at short-term bearish bias. However, MACD shows a mild bullish crossover, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. Recent candlesticks form an inverted hammer, indicating selling pressure is easing and a near-term rebound is possible. Overall, momentum remains unclear and traders should watch for a confirmed breakout or rejection.

Technical Trend:  GBPUSD is currently in a cautious consolidation phase, exhibiting a mild sideways correction within an overall temperate trend.

Technically, GBPUSD is holding firm around the psychological 1.35 support on the daily chart, with MACD hinting at diminishing selling pressure. The hourly inverted hammer candlestick further supports short-term bullish potential. However, moving average crossovers signal caution amid uncertainty; avoid chasing trades before a clear breakout. Volume decline suggests weak conviction, favoring waiting for macro catalysts to confirm direction.

Today’s GMT+1 economic calendar shows no significant direct events impacting GBPUSD, with major data focused on Japan and the Eurozone. Speeches from the European Central Bank President and Bundesbank Chairman later today could indirectly influence GBP/USD through shifts in Euro and global risk sentiment. Important US FOMC member speeches are scheduled overnight Hong Kong time, and any hawkish or dovish cues could affect USD strength, thereby impacting GBPUSD. In absence of direct UK or US data today, price action will largely depend on reactions to these speeches and global market dynamics.

Resistance & Support

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